Why unemployment will increase in 2015 – BBC

We need a growth rate of 1.5% for the economy to create enough jobs and absorb new entrants into the labor force in 2015.

In the first half of 2015, the expected slight increase in employment is not sufficient to absorb the growth of the labor force increase of 64,000 people. Thus, the number of unemployed would increase slightly. The unemployment rate could reach 10.6% in mid-2015, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), its highest level since late 1997. But cal According to Michel Sapin, Minister of Finance to reduce unemployment must “aim 1.5% or 2% growth,” actually a much higher rate than what is expected for 2015.

Half 2015 acquis annual GDP growth would be 0.8%, after three very dull years (0.4%), displays INSEE in its monthly report on Thursday. The activity could grow by 1.1% in mid-2015 compared with mid-2014.

In a detailed study, also published Thursday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates growth of France to 1.1% this year, far from the 1.5% expected by the Prime Minister Manuel Valls. As for the US rating agency Standard & amp; Poor’s, she stressed on the same day that economic growth should accelerate to 1.1% this year in France and 1.5% in 2016.

Total employment would go back on the rise first half of 2015 with a forecast of creation of 20,000 jobs, while 17,000 jobs were destroyed in the second half of 2014. This acceleration mainly result from any decline in the commercial sector.

The commercial sector (the sector offers paid goods and services) continue to lose jobs in the first half 2015 (13.000 positions estimated INSEE) but by much less than what has been observed in recent semesters. For example, the second half of 2014, 61,000 jobs were lost in this sector. This improvement is due to the relative slight acceleration in activity and the support given by the cumulative effects of the Covenant of responsibility and solidarity, and the scalability of the tax credit for competitiveness and employment.

In contrast, the first half of 2015, the non-profit sector that offers free or almost free to the community – such as education, health, etc. – would create 23,000 jobs, mainly because of 20 000 assisted contracts.

But the solution is rather to seek the investment side. The finance minister, Michel Sapin, said Thursday that, to find sustainable growth – and reduce unemployment – must be “investment, investment, investment,” which requires to give business confidence …