Employment will benefit from the wave of retirements – Challenges.fr

France Strategy, the body reflection in the Prime Minister’s Office, presented on Tuesday, April 28 to Labour Minister François Rebsamen, the results of a large study “jobs in 2022 “. Conducted for the third time in 15 years, this prospective study on the evolution of industries and labor resources should help to better anticipate changes and bottlenecks in the labor market. With in fine , the objective of improving guidance for young people and training of all ages. To approach a maximum of truth, France Strategy and DARES made their predictions from the three scenarios. An output progressive crisis, a crisis and a quick restart of the economy

Here are 10 lessons to be learned from this study:

1 in 735,000 832,000 jobs available each year thanks to retirements

France Strategy evaluates between 735,000 (crisis scenario) and 832.000 (growth scenario ) the number of jobs available each year in France over the period 2012-2022. Of this, 620,000 concern only the replacement of retiring generating the Baby Boom . This means that almost 3/4 of vacancies resulting from retirements, against 1/4 that will affect net job creation (115,000 to 212,000).

C is a sharp increase compared to the previous decade since the period 1993-20001, 400,000 people were retiring each year. So these are essentially the retirements that will participate in the new dynamism of the French labor market over the coming years. But yet to find a buyer! According to the annual study by Pôle Emploi published in April, 1.74 million positions are already vacant in France.

2. With increasing workforce

This dynamic clearly distinguishes France from other major European countries: the working population will grow rapidly in the coming years to 29 5 million people in 2022, 1.2 million workers over a decade. An almost unique phenomenon in Europe is explained by a relatively high population growth and rising employment rates among seniors. For some countries such as Germany, Italy and Belgium will know, not stagnation, but a reduction in their workforce. At issue: the decline in the total population is not offset by immigration and stagnating participation rate since 2007

. 3. feminisation and aging of the workforce

In uninterrupted growth since 1975, the share of women in the population active will reach 49.1% in 2022, against 47.4% in 2012 and 38.3% in 1975. This is the result of the growing service sector of the economy at the expense of industry and agriculture . Furthermore, due to the departure of the age of retirement and back of arriving late more young people into the labor market, the labor force will age over the next 10 years. If the number of active 15 to 25 years is expected to remain virtually unchanged (+ 0.7%), and the 25-54 decrease slightly (- 1%), in contrast, the number of older assets at least 55 years should increase by 40%, or about 1.5 million additional people during the period.

4. A little optimism for young university graduates

France Strategy is rather optimistic. Indeed, according to him, the sectors that are the traditional outlets for young university graduates will grow much in the coming years. And with them employment. This is, for example, engineers and technicians of IT, administrative technicians, architects and building technicians, commercial attachés, personal study and research, or professional communication and information.

For under graduates, “prospects for increased staffing vendors, hairdressers, beauticians, chefs and hotel and restaurant employees should also benefit young beginners who are numerous in these trades, with levels of quite varied degrees, “suggests France Strategy. Finally, if the area of ​​human services still recruits some graduates, the creation of “professional bachelor” could reverse the trend, the report suggests.

5. Delicate situation for seniors

While the number of job seniors will increase sharply until 2022 (see point 3) arises the question of their conversion. Indeed, the current businesses where there is an over-representation of older people are less dynamic in the job plan and therefore more prone to job losses. These are the functions of workers, maintenance workers, teachers, administrative staff and managers, farmers, vehicle drivers, managers in the public service and doctors or similar. “To strengthen the employment of seniors, it will be necessary to significantly increase their relative presence in occupations where they are currently few, by deliberate policies of recruitment or continued employment, including through agreements company or industry “, said France Strategy.

6. Increased metropolization skilled jobs

At the regional dynamics of employment, closely related to demographic trends, the regions that experienced the largest increases in recent years should logically continue momentum until 2022. France Strategy and provides more favorable outlook for the regions of West and South dévavorables for those in the North and East.

Beyond these areas, it is mainly the large cities that will concentrate the bulk of job creation in the next decade. Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Toulouse, Bordeaux, Rennes, to name a few, will greatly benefit from this accelerated metropolization employment. A movement even stronger that these jobs are created, overall, more qualified than the average and therefore less sensitive to economic conditions. A contrario , isolated territories, rural, heavily industrialized dominant, face difficulties if they do not begin a dynamic policy of revitalization.

7. The most promising sectors and occupations by 2022

Of the 19 sectors identified as such by France Strategy, 6 provide more than 500,000 jobs available between 2012 and 2022, at least 50,000 per year. These are the areas of the public service and the legal profession (529,000) for transport, logistics and tourism (540,000), construction (554,000), management and business administration (823,000), trade (827,000) and above of business services to individuals and communities (1.2 million).

Within these categories, certain trades were particularly the wind stern. This is the case, for example, maintenance workers (387,000 vacancies in 2012-2022), home health aides (322,000), accounting and financial (244,000), health aides (233,000), sales (232,000), nurses (219,000), administrative employees of the Public Service (211,000) and commercial frameworks (205.000).

Overall, aid to individuals and businesses those are the most highly qualified carriers by 2022. The growth of business executives would be almost twice as high as that of all occupations (1.2% against 0.7%).

The jobs in the sector “management and business administration”:

Jobs in the service sector to the person:

8. The least promising sectors and occupations by 2022

Conversely, a number of sectors will record a very small increase in their numbers, that is, they offer less than 200,000 jobs over the next decade. In addition to agriculture (182,000), there are also industrial sectors such as electricity and electronics (54.000), flexible materials, wood and printing industry (90,000), mechanics and metalworking (186,000), the IT (191.000) and finally the process industries Trades (193.000).

In detail, the less promising businesses in the coming years are: unskilled workers in electricity and electronics (5,000 vacancies in 2012-2022 ), employees and computer operators (6000), the fishermen (7000), the army, the police and firefighters (8,000) and mechanical unskilled workers and Metalworking (12,000).

9. Quasi maintaining agricultural employment

The number of jobs in the agriculture, marine and fisheries should continue to erode over the next decade, but at a much slower pace than in previous decades as shown in this graph. Agricultural occupations and the sea would lose 76,000 jobs between 2012 and 2022, a decrease of 0.8% per year on average, lower than that observed in the previous two decades from 2002 to 2012 (- 1.1%) and 1992 -2002 (- 4.1%). This erosion concerns primarily farmers and ranchers while the number of technicians, agricultural managers, gardeners, growers and even fishermen should increase.

Increasing the number of technicians and managers in agriculture is to be compared with a “salaried workers” increasing farmers. Between retirements and creations / net job destruction, 182,000 vacancies arise in the period from 2012 to 2022, including 73,000 among gardeners / gardeners and 71,000 among farmers / ranchers.

10. gloomy outlook in the public service

Reduced public spending requires, recruitment in the public service are half-mast. And it should not change in the coming years, even if the macro-economic situation is improving in France, ahead of France Strategy. The numbers are expected to decline by 0.4% per year according to the central scenario or 83,000 net destruction of jobs over the decade. This contraction jobs mainly concern the categories B and C of the civil service, military, police, and firefighters, while the ranks of the public service and the legal profession are more numerous. The partial replacement of retirements (612,000 per year) should still allow the State to provide 529,000 jobs each year.