View of Tokyo Harbour Wharf, April 22, 2015 (AFP / KAZUHIRO NOGI)
Japan, struggling under massive trade deficits since the nuclear accident in Fukushima, posted a surplus in March for the first time since June, 2012, an improvement may be fleeting but important for the government and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
After 32 straight losses, the third largest economy can relax a little: the Foreign Trade accounts have finally switched to green last month with a positive balance of 229 billion yen (1.8 billion euros), according to statistics released Wednesday by the Ministry of Finance.
This is much better than the expectations of economists, who had forecast a surplus of only 45 billion yen.
The trend was drawn in recent months thanks to falling oil prices and strong exports, boosted by a relative improvement in the international economic situation and especially American good health.
In March, black gold purchases plunged 51% and petroleum products by 38%. The liquefied natural gas bill was also reduced (-12%).
Finally, imports were down 14.5% in value over the period to 6.698 billion yen (51, 5 billion euros).
At the same time, exports rose 8.5% to 6.927 billion yen, driven by various machines, semiconductors and automobiles.
They have also benefited from the weakening of the yen, which automatically inflates the revenue collected abroad when converted into Japanese currency: volume, the increase was only 3.3%.
The currency effect was particularly played on trade with the United States (+ 21.3% in value, 5.9% by volume).
Behind the scenes, the two countries are about to complete the marathon negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free market agreement between 12 states in the region. Remains to be seen how they will lead to a reduction in structural barriers in two key areas, agriculture (rice) for Japan, the automobile to the US
-. ‘Glimmer of hope “in a struggling economy –
The first monthly surplus in nearly three years seems like good news for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Governor of the Central Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, a week after a report encouraging the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a growth of 1% this year.
Via known under the term “Abenomics” strategy, the two men have been trying for two years in vain to destroy deflation and revive an economy weakened by the transition to a VAT of 8% ( against 5% previously) last year.
“External demand will be the bright spot for the Japanese economy this year, while household consumption and business investment remain weak” commented to Bloomberg, Toru Suehiro, an analyst at Mizuho
But beware, warns Marcel Thieliant, of Capital Economics. “The trade surplus is unlikely to last.”
It evokes the rebound beginning of the oil market since the beginning of the year and a yen led to even give ground. This movement “would increase the cost of imports more than it exports the rise,” he says in a note.
The archipelago had slipped into the red in 2011 on the throughout the year, for the first time in 31 years, as a result of the atomic Fukushima disaster that resulted in the shutdown of all reactors in the country (48 not counting the six wrecked Fukushima Daiichi).
This drama has forced Japan to dramatically increase its purchases of oil to run power plants.
If the pro-nuclear advocates Abe urbi et orbi for restarting plants, his voice hardly door only two reactors are likely to be called into service by the end of 2015, and at least five must be dismantled.
Eventually, nuclear generation probably will not return to its levels prior to March 2011, what influence the accounts of foreign trade, although according to press reports, the government is moving towards electricity from about 20% of nuclear energy by 2030.
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