The Paris Bourse, which abuts on 5,200 points may remain cautious in the coming days due to many corporate earnings and a charge current to the United States with a Fed meeting and the numbers growth.
In the past week, the CAC 40 index took 1.13% to close Friday at 5201.45 points. Its gains since January 1 stood at 21.74%.
The Paris market is buoyant but hardly able to move above the 5,200 point for lack of sufficient new reassuring.
“The CAC 40 had sessions with fairly large differences but still it progresses over the week. However, it’s hard to hold 5,200 points and will have significant catalysts to go higher, “says Isabelle Enos, deputy director of management at B * Capital (BNP Paribas Group).
A pause be justified when “the increase was very strong in the first quarter and valuation levels investors are sobering,” says Jean-Louis Mourier, economist at broker Aurel BGC.
In addition, operators have already incorporated much good news as improved economic climate and a recovery in corporate profits, he said.
Still, “the market downside potential is limited by the action of the banks plants “, including the European Central Bank (ECB) injected 60 billion euros per month in the financial system, says Mr. Mourier.
Caution, however, could dominate as much as the week opens particularly busy announcement economic appointments in the United States and the euro area.
The US news will be especially followed with a meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) that s’ concludes Wednesday, the day of the publication of the first estimate of growth for the first quarter is expected to show a slowdown.
Investors will be on the lookout for items on the timing of the next rising interest rate of the US central bank.
“Investors felt that the statistical mixed recent weeks pleaded for a first rate rise late,” which reassured the markets fear that deadline, according to Mr. Mourier.
The Fed seems in no hurry to tighten monetary policy due to some headwinds affecting the US economy, particularly the rising dollar.
Yet , it “has in his sights higher yields and should prepare people for this date” and “consensus table on the June or September, but with very small increases in the first place,” warns Isabelle Enos.
In the euro zone, the market will focus on the inflation figures for April and the unemployment rate for March, while the ECB buys bulk active since March, precisely to support the economy.
“Do not get carried away on the economy in the eurozone. Signs of improvement remains fragile and it will relay that pass through employment and investment, “according to Mr. Mourier.
On the political side, Greece remains a concern although investors believe that an agreement will be reached in time with international creditors to release the next tranche of loans and avoid default.
“Greece leads volatility repeatedly but remains on The idea that an agreement will be reached, “according to Isabelle Enos.
Finally, the corporate earnings season will continue on the Paris market, with some big names that reveal their accounts for the first quarter with Total, Orange, Saint-Gobain, Lafarge, STMicroelectronics and Air France-KLM
So far, the “business publications are quite good, thanks to the decline of the euro against the dollar, “according to Isabelle Enos that” the market had perhaps not anticipated impact of exchange so important. “
Renault, Michelin and Publicis have particularly benefited the stock market.
However, “this exchange effect will not correct the difficulties specific to certain groups,” according to the manager at the Kering image which fell due to the difficulties of Gucci brand.
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