Wednesday, October 26, 2016

The historical decline in unemployment in September, reassured the government – The World

The number of job seekers without activity in France has fallen from 66 300 to over 3.49 million people. A ” true drop “, according to economists.

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It could not get much better. For François Hollande, who has conditioned his candidacy for the presidential election of 2017 to the inversion of the unemployment curve, these figures are an angel. He who must face up to the disastrous consequences for his party of ” A president should not say it “, a book of confessions published by the editors of World Gérard Davet and Fabrice that Man finally has some good news to announce : the unemployment figures have dropped in September. And in a significant way.

in The ninth month of the year, the number of job seekers without any activity and shall be required to search for a job (the category Has, the more scrutinized by the observers) enrolled in Pole employment, has decreased by 66 300 people in metropolitan France, compared to the month of August. Amounting to 3.49 million people. A decline of 1.9% over thirty days. A record for the last sixteen years : it is, in percentage terms, the largest decline since November 2000.

Of which more than compensate for the 50 000 additional unemployed persons registered with Pôle emploi at month of August. This figure is very scary, mainly due to the ups and downs crossed by the tourism sector, had left observers puzzled as to the ability of the government to François Hollande and to really reduce unemployment.

Read also : unemployment is rising again in August

” This is the trend that counts “

to his joy, the president has, once is not custom, commented on the statistics released Tuesday by the Pôle Emploi and the ministry of labour on his official page Facebook :the ” beyond The numbers that may vary from month to month, the gist of it is that women and men have been able to find a job and stability (…) these are The choices that explain the figures of today. But I always reminded us, it is the trend that counts. “

” We have always stressed the very strong variability of the monthly figures and the need to focus more rigorously on the changes in medium-and long-terms, for its part, has reacted Myriam El Khomri, minister of labour, in a press release : we are naturally delighted that these latest data will strengthen a trend in favour. “

Former minister of labour and trusty the president, François Rebsamen has also participated in the concert of celebration at the microphone of RTL, and on the social network Twitter on Tuesday evening. the ” Hollande will, if he so desires, to participate in the presidential election. Its commitment is required “ he indicated.

The opposition has beautiful hammer that he ” there is no sustainability, “, that” the increases mass of rotating drops the strange “, according to Eric Woerth, the secretary-general of the Republican (LR), the good results are definitely there.

Because on the last three months, the period of statistics is the most significant according to economists, the number of job seekers by category Has also declined. Retreating from 35 to 200 people compared to the previous quarter. It is, of course, a drop of only 1%, but a decline nevertheless. Better, unemployment is falling for the third consecutive quarter, a first since 2008.

Most of the people hired

” In total, since the beginning of the year, reports to the ministry of labour in a press release, the number of job seekers without activity was decreased to 90 000. Despite monthly variations, sometimes strong, so these are 10,000 people who come each month, on average, of the category A. “

” With a minimum of 90 000 job seekers since the beginning of the year, the trend is good, continues on Rue de Grenelle. in We head to the forecasts of the Unedic, or 124 000 the unemployed under the age for 2016. “

The disgruntled people who imputeraient this decline in unemployment to a statistical effect of the plan 500 000 further education and training (the people in the internship come out automatically of the category Has to go to the D), the government replies that it is nothing. The number of persons placed in category D remained stable, explains the Rue de Grenelle, ” because of the concomitant increase in the number of out-of-training “.

According to the ministry of labour, these good results are due to a double effect : fewer new entrants to the job center, so less of the newly unemployed, (–5,5 %). And more outputs for re-employment, or more people hired, on the other hand (+ 15,4 %).

The figures are consistent with statistics recently published by the Insee : in the third quarter, the number of hires in a contract of indeterminate duration (CDI) has increased from 21 000 compared to the previous quarter, an increase of 2.4 %.

” The suspicion is a bit of a party “

If economists are hailing the performance, all agree, all the same, to cool the enthusiasm of the government. the ” It is a real decrease, but this is not a collapse of unemployment “, holds, for example, to recall Bertrand Martinot, co-author ofanother right to work is possible (Fayard, 400 pages, 20 euros), and former general delegate for employment and vocational training.

” The unemployment decreases a bit because the macroeconomic situation is better. The rates are low, oil is less expensive, which gives purchasing power to households and fills out a little the order books of companies “, points out Alexandre Delaigue, economics professor at the university of Lille-I., And continued :

” It is not that the confidence has returned, it is rather that distrust is a little part, the French economy may be beginning to get used to the fact that the growth is now soft. “

As written, François Hollande, on Facebook, ” the battle is not finished “.


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