The number of job seekers registered with Pôle emploi in category A (no activity) fell from 66.300 in September, a-t we learned Tuesday, October 25. This is the largest decrease since 1996, year in which statistics began to be collected in this format. Bruno Ducoudré, the Observatory of economic conjunctures, decrypts this figure. Interview.
How to explain such a record ?
- It is indeed a record, there had been reductions of approximately 60,000 in march and in September 2000, but it is the largest decrease since 1996, the date of the first use of the current statistics. There are three main reasons for this :
- first, the environment of the labour market is improving : since 2015, the growth is accelerating, which translates into job creation is higher in the tradable sector.
- Then, devices like the tax Credit competitive employment, assistance with recruitment for SMES and the increase of the workload of the training plan in support of these cuts in the number of students enrolled in class A.
- Finally, there has been a change in the rules of discount with Pôle emploi. Before, job seekers have every month 14 working days to indicate that they were still unemployed. Since 2015, the number of working days varies. However, it is known that the greater the number of working days, the greater the discount, and therefore the greater the number of unemployed persons increases. In the month of July, there were 11 working days to refresh, in the month of August, there were 14, which was reflected by a significant increase in category A. In September, the number of working days lost was 12 and we returned to a number of discount over the normal.
The number of job seekers in category B and C (with reduced activity) increased in September. What is this means ?
- there may be an effect of communicating vessel between the categories A and categories B and C : the unemployed go from one to the other because they have a reduced activity at the place of no activity. But this effect does not explain the decline in class A, because it is much more important than the increase in categories B and C.
The administration also indicates that the decline in the month of September for all age classes.
- This is true for the job seekers class A, not for the seniors of the class A, B and C combined. The background trend, it is a drop in the under 25 years of age, and now a decline in the category of 25 to 49 years who constitute the bulk of the troops. In more than 50 years, it continued to increase because of the decline in retirement, but it is less and less important as the reform takes place.
The administration is also pleased to see the number of long-term unemployed decrease. Is this significant to you ?
– I do not have the same interpretation. There is a small decrease (-7.000) the number of registered job-seekers for a year and more, but the number of those who have been here between 2 and 3 years is stable and those who are there for more than 3 years are more likely. So I would say that it is the number of unemployed average duration decreases. However, it is of the categories A, B and C, and therefore of people who may have been reduced.
The decline is it sustainable ?
- We plan to the BOARD for a decrease in unemployment within the meaning of the international labour Office ; the trend should continue. A month on the other, the figures Pole employment can, however, continue to fluctuate.
interview Tuesday, September 25, by Donald Hebert – Obs