Friday, October 28, 2016

France : the GDP rose by 0.2% in the third quarter – The Echoes

The French growth in the third quarter increased by 0.2%, according to figures released Friday by Insee. A rebound is disappointing, even if it is encouraging, as the latest business surveys suggested that business leaders, even if they had not crushed the black during the summer, had touched the back without much enthusiasm .

It will be “difficult to reach” the goal of 1.5% in 2016, following the publication of these figures, was immediately admitted Michel Sapin, minister of Economy and Finance who was the guest of RTL. So far, there temperate, this figure does not, however, concerned “the dynamics of recovery at work for a year and a half” and “does not change anything on the front of the unemployment drop significantly, as on the front of the deficit, which is declining and will reach the goals set”.

A growth of only 1.1 %

As the increase is less strong than the 0.3 percent that was anticipated and the Bank of France in its latest forecasts, based on responses by corporate executives. With an increase of 0.3 %, the Institute of issuance was estimated then that about the year as a whole, the GDP would be close to 1.4%. A forecast slightly higher than that of the Insee (1,3 %), but already very slightly less than that of the government (1,5 %).

Now, with the results published this Friday, and provided they are not revised in the coming weeks, the Insee estimated that growth (i.e. the level that GDP would reach if the activity is not progressing in the last quarter) is 1.1 % and not

The domestic demand is almost stable

In detail, the figures from Insee show clearly that the engine of consumption is always down. “The household consumption expenditure stagnated for the second consecutive quarter,” noted the official statistician.

And even if the total investment is revised slightly (+0.3% after stagnating in the second quarter), “the final domestic demand (excluding inventories) is quasi-stable : it contributes to the growth of GDP to +0.1 point in the third quarter of 2016, as in the previous quarter”.

however, on the corporate side, activity has regained a bit of colour. “In the third quarter of 2016, the total production of goods and services bounces back moderately (+0.4% after -0,2 %),” said Insee.

The household investment picks up, business is down again

According to the Insee, the total investment increased by 0.3 % in the third quarter.An increase largely driven by investment in construction, which increases by 0.9 % (after-0.1 %) and merchant services are recovering also (both+1.1 % after 0.0 %).

on The contrary, investment in manufactured goods contracted markedly (-2,3 % after +0.3 %), notably in transport equipment, and equipment.

As for the trade, it also weighs on growth. Because if the imports have improved significantly due notably to the purchases of hydorcarbures, against the resumption of exports is more modest.

disappointing Second quarter

This release comes after a disappointing second quarter, which had not held the promises of dynamism the beginning of the year. After a rise of 0.6% during the first three months of 2016, the French economy had in fact recorded a very slight decline of 0.1% of the activity in the second quarter, hampered by in particular by the consumption and decline in investments.


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