Favorable winds for growth – Les Echos

+ DOCUMENT – INSEE has slightly revised its forecast on Thursday night, and expects an increase of 0.4% of GDP in the first quarter and 0, 3% in the second. Bercy keeps its growth forecast to 1%. The purchasing power and margins sharply higher.

Prudence is the mother of safety. The Government is doing this his popular saying. While the executive has repeatedly affirmed that the signs of recovery are increasing, the finance minister warned Thursday morning against any complacency. Michel Sapin has indeed warned that “do not change” the 1% growth forecast this year on the occasion of mid-April presentation of the stability program. Those words may surprise: there is a week Manuel Valls estimated that France would “ much better” that the 1% previously expected growth

But Bercy does not want to be flagrantly disregard its objectives. “ I’ll stay out of prudence, realism,” said Michel Sapin, for whom the 1% is “a floor” . Paris wants to give serious pledges in Brussels and avoid being accused of complacency by the Office of Public Finance Council to give its opinion on the scenario of Bercy. Last September, the independent body was found just “optimistic” the forecast growth of 1%.

Towards a sharp rise in purchasing power

This forecast is now supported by economists. The OECD has confirmed this Thursday expect a growth of 1.1% this year and COE-Rexecode rebounded his own from 0.8% to 1.2%. INSEE himself has slightly revised its forecast on Thursday night, and expects an increase of 0.4% of GDP in the first quarter and 0.3% in the second. Thus, “between mid-2014 and mid-2015, growth would reach 1.1%. This is a rate that France had not experienced since the late 2011 ‘, noted Vladimir Passeron, head of the economy department at INSEE. “Favourable winds on the French economy and that of our neighbors” , he noted.

In the first six months of 2015 “growth is based on the increase in consumption. This should significantly accelerate “ with the oil price decline and lower tax increases, said the economist. For the record, the French have not increased their spending since 2011. “The oil price decline will represent 10 billion euros of additional purchasing power for households in 2015″ , according to Michel Pine Tree. In mid-2015, the purchasing power would be 1.6% higher than it was a year before signing the largest increase in 5 years.

The economy should stop destroying jobs

Meanwhile, the depreciation of the euro against the dollar – the euro fell to its lowest level since 2003 against the greenback in the first quarter – should promote French exports. Especially as Germany and Spain are driving growth in the euro area. In short, alone, the fall in oil prices and the decline of the euro are expected to boost GDP by 0.4% in the first half of the year according to INSEE.

More good news, the economy should stop destroying jobs. With subsidized contracts, 20,000 jobs could even be created between January and June. Unfortunately, this is not enough to absorb the increase in the labor force and the unemployment rate is projected to increase to 10.6%. Above all, business leaders remain very cautious and should not rely on short term investing.

So Important uncertainties weigh on the recovery. That did not fail to emphasize the OECD: “Restore growth will be difficult” , she warns in a long study. For her, France still suffers from a “important problem of competitiveness” .

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

DOCUMENT The full monthly report