Friday, September 30, 2016

The price of oil is going to increase ? – The Progress

The surprise came from Algiers on the night of Wednesday : the Opec countries would agree to limit their production of oil, in order to bump up the price. But the effect of surprise, and the blur that remains on the terms of the agreement, make the experts wonder again about its real scope.

The concession of Arabia

The production would be limited between 32,5 and 33 million barrels per day, compared 33,47 in August. The agreement was made possible by the rapprochement of saudi Arabia and Iran, the two powers who are vying for the Middle East, and who are waging a war indirectly in Syria and Yemen. Saudi Arabia would have conceded a slight reduction in production, leaving his rival to regain market share, and Iran would have agreed not to increase its production as much as he had announced.

Why these changes ? It is too early to identify all the logic. The most obvious is that the prolonged depression of prices, and hence oil revenues, will eventually weigh the same on the very rich Arabia. Not to mention the Opec countries less favored, like Algeria.

What will happen to Russia ?

The result was not long in coming : the price of a barrel of brent rose in two days to a little more than $ 46 to about 49 dollars yesterday in the late afternoon.

But nothing says that the effect will be sustainable. Because the agreement still needs to be clarified by the summit half-yearly Opec, on the 30th of November in Vienna. It also must keep, to resist the temptation of such or such a member country to sell more to earn more. Finally, the Opec accounting for only 40 % of the world production, observe the reaction of the other producing countries – Russia, but also from the United States.

62 % of taxes on diesel

What effect, finally, on the price at the pump ? Overall, they are down from three years of age : the litre of diesel was 1.45 € August 17, 2012, and 1.11 € on the 23rd of September. This 25% drop is much lower than that for the price of a barrel of crude, which has in the meantime been divided by two.

How do you explain the difference ? By taxes, to meet the oil. On the litre of diesel to 1.11 € taken as an example by the Ufip (see below), the TICPE (tax domestic consumption of energy products) to 0,511 euro, more 0,102 euro VAT this tax, and the VAT on the product itself to 0,082 euro – 0,695 euro of taxes (62 % of the final price). And the increase in the price of the raw material would cover only 29 % of the component price, the difference going to the distribution.

F. B.


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