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there is No doubt that the latest draft of finance law (PLF) of the quinquennium, presented on Wednesday 28 September, there will be a mad rat race between the majority of outgoing left and the right-wing opposition, who aspires to regain the majority in 2017. The protagonists have already set the scene. The minister of economy and finance, Michel Sapin claims the ” principle of responsibility “, and maintains the target of reducing the public deficit to 2.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017.
” Salad “, ” bogus “, ” diy “, ” hack “ and other amiability, say, the main candidate of the right, engaged in an internal primary, who deny any credibility to this budget and are preparing themselves to recreuser deficits, by imputing the fault to the” legacy ” left by the current majority.
thereat, the High Council of public finance (HCFP), the authority to assess the realism of government forecasts, brings water to the mill by holding unlikely the goal of the government.
Read also : Budget 2017 : the return of the deficit to 2.7%, which was deemed “unlikely” by the High Council of public finances
The word was fly, and Mr. Tree has made (the fly). the ” with This commitment, we will keep it. Some consider it "unlikely". However, our past results, we are bolstered in our confidence, response to-t-he, recalling the criticisms of the same HCFP against the budget bill 2015. in What was out of reach was reached. This is unlikely to be proven. “
” If tomorrow everyone is evidence of serious budget which we have evidence “, taking care to add, because in all the cases, the cards budget will be rebattues to the outcome of the presidential and legislative elections.
This is sort of a budget “Canada dry” that, for the time being, is put on the table : it has all the appearance of seriousness, but it contains a lot of additives. It expects a growth of 1.5% in 2017, but most of the organizations of economic conditions to anticipate a bottom.
The deficit of the State remains stable
If the deficit of all public administrations is expected to be 2.7 %, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points compared to the beginning of the quinquennium, the State will present him with a negative balance of 69.3 billion euros (– 3 %), almost identical to the forecast deficit of 2016, 69,9 billion (– 3.3 per cent). The State deficit was 3.9 % in 2012.
The reduction of the public deficit has in large part rested on the efforts of the social Security and territorial communities.
Increase in public expenditure
The share of public expenditure in the GDP amounted to 54.6 %. A continuous decline since 2012, this rate was 56 per cent, claims the government, recalling that, since the beginning of the quinquennium, the average increase in public spending in value has been 1.3% per year, while it was 3.6% per year between 2000 and 2012.
” In total, we have achieved 46 billion euros of savings between 2015 and 2017 “, ” said Mr. Sapin. An amount that leaves skeptical.
The budget in 2017 anticipates a 1.6% increase in public spending in value, after 1.4% in 2016.
In total, the government had to find 14 billion euros to finance the new measures announced in recent months. The “social sphere” will contribute 1.5 billion euros : reduction of niches social, increase in the tax on rolling tobacco and taxation of distributors of tobacco, product up the fight against fraud, savings on the management of the funds, and ” lower expenses “ provided on certain reforms, such as those of death, or the allocation of parental leave.
The State, meanwhile, plans to bring in 1.3 billion euros in additional revenue. The acceleration of the payment of corporate tax for larger businesses will earn it only 530 million euros.
in addition to measures on savings products, in respect of the tax on commercial surfaces or the tax on company vehicles as well as on the capping of the solidarity tax on fortune.
Is also planned for 1.2 billion euros, of regulation of the investments for the future.
The budget for 2017 also relies on additional inputs, notably thanks to the income generated by the fight against tax fraud. The government expects to revise down eur 1 billion of the evolution of local spending by 2017.
action shot
Finally, and most importantly, the reorientation of the pact of responsibility – substituting for the tax cuts provided for an increase in the tax credit competitive employment (CICE), which will be charged in the budgets of 2018 and not 2017 – allows you to free up € 5 billion of margin.
In total, the government has, therefore, to 13.8 billion euros in additional revenue or lower expenses, which cover nearly 14 billion euros of new spending.
These are, for the most part, action at a stroke. Put end to end, this is actually “the mesh”, but it all looks the same to an assembly of odds and ends. While showing a willingness to seriously budget, it is not certain, under these conditions, the government to remove doubts on the credibility of its goals.
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