GRAPHICS – The IMF has revised down its growth forecast for 2015 to 3.5% of GDP, against 3.8% initially planned. In France, GDP was revised to 0.9% in 2015, instead of 1% previously.
against shock oil is there and it is massive, “The price of oil fell by about 55% since September,” notes the International Monetary Fund in its new growth forecasts unveiled Tuesday from Beijing. Unfortunately, the expected rebound that was to arise almost automatically is not waiting for you.
With the notable exception of the US, and to a lesser extent Spain, the IMF revised down its economic growth figures for all countries in the world. Globally, GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to increase by only 3.5% instead of 3.8% expected in October, when the previous forecast. The update for 2016 is also down, from 4 to 3.7%.
France is no exception to the general darkening of the euro area: the French GDP is expected to grow by only 0.9%, not 1% this year and 1.3 % in 2016 (instead of 1.5%). Germany is also affected while continuing to progress to more substantial rates (1.3 and 1.5% sequentially). The cocktail – oil fall, decline of the euro and lower interest rates – thereby generate the expected tonic effect, especially in Paris, where one always tends to overvalue the impact of the environment – the blame to others. – instead of his inner muscles will to progress
It seems that “the alignment of three stars”, in the words of François Hollande, gives rise to eclipse the IMF described as follows. “The decline in oil prices, due largely to an increase in supply (shale gas) will give a boost to global growth. But this impulse should be more than offset by negative factors. Decline in investment, market volatility, stagnation in the euro area and Japan, geopolitical risks “
For its part, Russia crystallizes both the misfortunes of oil exporters and geopolitical tensions. She will undergo two years of decline in GDP (3 and 1%). The situation in the world is further complicated by the trend decline in China, which is anything but a surprise. Chinese growth will fall below 7% for the first time in ages (6.8% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016), with “implications (negative) for emerging Asia”.
The only engine that seems in good working condition are the United States, 3.6% and 3.3% expansion, respectively for 2015 and 2016. deflationary threats in the eurozone, “considerable uncertainty surrounding the impact of lower prices on the future supply of oil “(the future of the US shale gas):” All this leads to a complicated mosaic “says Olivier Blanchard, IMF Economic Counsellor to qualify global economic conditions. In this maelstrom, he advises the euro area “accommodative monetary policy” and “structural reforms” ease on one side and on the other, the sense of effort
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