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The figure is far below expectations of economists, who had forecast a rise of more than 3%. On the whole 2014 the US economy grew by 2.4%. The figure is slightly higher than the growth of the last three years, which averaged 2.2%, but still well below the 3.4% average that knew the United States in the 1990s “The fact that the figure for the fourth quarter was below expectations should not overshadow the overall picture for 2014, which was the best year for the US economy since the recession,” , says Joseph Lake, analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit.
The good news of the end of the year has been the increase in consumption, which represents 70% of US economic activity. American spending jumped 4.3%, the highest since 2006. This effect is explained both by lower gasoline prices, which boosted the purchasing power of households and by the strength the labor market. Nearly 3 million were created in 2014.
In the last three months of the year, consumer spending added 2.9 percentage points to GDP growth. With an increase of 2.5% over the whole of 2014, spending by Americans find their level in 2006. The health of the consumer is reflected in the consumer confidence index. According to the latest data from the University of Michigan, it has never been so high for eleven years.
However, investment side, the pace slowed considerably. After rising 8.9% in the third quarter, growth is only 1.9% in the fourth. Business spending on equipment even fell by 1.9%. This is the largest decline since the second quarter of 2009
Other bad news. The increase in the trade deficit, which stood at 471.5 billion dollars, while imports increased three times faster than exports. A logical trend, while in the last three months of 2014, the dollar began its surge against the yen and the euro, thus penalizing the competitiveness of the United States.
At the same time, the economic downturn in Asia and Europe weighed on US exports. In total, foreign trade has cost 1 point of growth. This indicator is however to be taken lightly in that the figures for December have not had the time to be taken into account. It will have to wait for the second estimate of GDP in February, see the third in March for a better idea.
Finally, the decline in public spending of 2.2% cost 0.4 points to growth, however, offset by growth in business inventories which contributed to GDP by 0.8 percentage points.
Even if US growth looks strong, 2015 looks mixed. “The Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs and curb consumer spending , anticipates M.Lake. The weak external demand will also weigh on the US economy, which can not bounce indefinitely, while other countries are faced with low power consumption and disinflation. The strength of the dollar will make US products less competitive. All these factors will eventually slow the US economy, although it will experience growth rate to be the envy of Europe “, he said.
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