Greece she may again get out of the eurozone? – The World

Greece she may again get out of the eurozone? – The World

Le Monde | 25/01/2015 at 11:09 • Updated 01/25/2015 at 11:19 | By Maxime Vaudano

At the time of the Greek parliamentary elections Sunday, January 25, all eyes are on SYRIZA, the formation of the radical left which could gain power. Supporter of the end of the austerity and restructuring of debt, its leader Alexis Tsipras threat he keeping Greece in the eurozone?

1 . Where is Greece?

A deficit is reduced. Official figures of Greek public finances are not pleasing at first sight: the debt still rises to over 170% of GDP, while the deficit is rising again in 2013, to more than 12% of national wealth <. / p>

However, they mask a more complex reality: out “exceptional expenses” and support to the banking sector, the Greek deficit stood at 2.1% in 2013. Better: Athens exuded even a primary surplus of 0.8% of GDP – that is to say that by excluding debt service, the Greek government has collected more money than it spent .

These results are not sufficient for the troika, which calls for Greece it proves fiscal stability on the horizon 2015/2016 before loosening the grip of austerity.

Aid still pending. Between different levels of European and international aid, the restructuring of part of its debt and conventional financing of the European Union, Greece has received no less than 380 billion euros in 2007.

A little more than 10 billion still to be loaned Greece: 7 billion by the IMF, and 3.6 billion by the Europeans, for the final installment of their second bailout

2 . Out of the euro is it legally possible?

The European treaties do not provide the opportunity for a state to leave the euro zone. The European Commission has reminded January 5 to try to dispel rumors: belonging to a country outside the euro area is “irrevocable”

Therefore. two options would be available to Greece if it wanted to, as already explained in 2011 the economist Eric Dor:

• the legal way: it squarely out of the European Union (through Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon), then re-accedes in stride by negotiating an exception allowing it to not have to enter the euro area ( such as the United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark did in the 1990s)

• The exceptional way. Twenty-Eight amended the European treaties to introduce an exit clause in the euro zone to allow Greece to leave the euro without slamming the EU’s door. It would even be possible, according to some observers, to circumvent European law if everyone (Commission and Member States) agreed.

Read: Greek elections will not “trigger a crisis,” according to Mr Moscovici

3 . The Greek exit scenario is it plausible?

The radical left party Syriza favorite in the polls for the upcoming elections in Greece, does not advocate the output Athens the euro area, unlike the neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn, for example. It is rather the indirect consequences of its program which revived concerns a scenario of “Grexit” ( “Greece Exit” ).

The party Alexis Tsipras demands a revision of austerity and reform policies imposed by the troika of creditors (IMF, Central Bank and European Commission) and offers a reverse recovery policy for the Greek economy (creation of public employment, reinstatement of the minimum wage, investment). But above all, he wants to renegotiate the remaining debt of Greece with its creditors.

So many perspectives that scare the financial markets and irritate its European neighbors. If it was neglected by investors, Greece could plunge back into castrophique situation that almost lead to the exit from the euro in 2011-2012

Read:. An output Greece would be costly to the euro area

Without such an extremity arrives, the staff of “Grexit” could also be wielded as a threat by the European Commission and the European States , led by Germany. Especially since no European aid, Athens is unable to fund only the markets, with borrowing rates now turning around 9%

Everything leads us to believe that Syriza and Brussels will seek a compromise. By renouncing the moratorium on repayment of the debt he still advocated recently, the radical left party could negotiate a restructuring to get some air. This may take the form of a spread or even erasing a portion of the debts

Read also:. Why Syriza does not (too much) fear in Brussels