China saw its economic growth slow sharply in 2014, slipping to a new level in nearly a quarter century, far from the peaks of the past decade, reflecting Beijing’s efforts as “rebalancing” of the country.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the second world economy grew last year by 7.4%, announced Tuesday the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
This is better than the forecast of the panel of 15 analysts polled by AFP (+ 7.3%), but well below the 7.7% growth recorded in 2013.
The Asian giant sign Hence his lowest annual growth since 1990, following the suppression of the Tiananmen movement.
This is despite an unexpected stabilization in the last three months (October-December), where GDP grew by 7.3%, the same rate as the previous quarter
The clouds that darkened 2014 however struggling to dissipate, while two engines of GDP continues to falter.: a property market worth, and exports sealed by the international slump on lackluster domestic demand for background
-. “New Standard” –
Beijing had set for 2014 an official objective of “about 7.5%”, but had tried in recent months to minimize the importance, referring to a “new normal”. Sign that the boom years of double-digit growth – up to a peak of 14.2% in 2007 -. Are well bygone
The government willingly emphasizes its efforts to rebalance and make it “more sustainable “its business model – by trimming the monopolies of public groups and severe industrial overcapacity, curbing the debts of local governments, while boosting domestic consumption – even see growth moderating
. China’s industrial output swelled by 8.3% in 2014, a marked slowdown after 9.7% the previous year, according to the NBS. Key indicator published recently, electricity consumption rose by 3.8% last year against an increase of 7.5% in 2013.
But “the results are not too bad. Growth for 2014 just missed the official target, “tempered Liu Li-gang, ANZ Bank analyst. For him, the increased contribution of services to GDP growth sector at the expense of industry and construction, “reflects the ongoing structural changes.”
Fixed asset investment, which measure investments in infrastructure, swelled by 15.7% in 2014, well below that in 2013 (19.6%).
The SNB also reported encouraging figures December: industrial production accelerated last month, rising 7.9% year on year, while retail sales ressaisissaient (+ 11.9% yoy), suggesting a consolidation of household consumption <. / p>
The statistics “suggest that the slowdown in investment (…) is partly offset by the surge in consumption and services,” abounded Julian Evans-Pritchard, the firm Capital Economics, noted that the market of work – government priority – “holds good, surprisingly robust manner”
-. “Balance” between growth and reforms –
But the general opinion, the respite end of 2014 should remain temporary: the average analysts expect an economic growth of 7% in 2015, which could be the official objective that Beijing will announce in March
And the unanimous experts expect. that continues the nudges targeted to the economy
For Beijing did not remain inactive before the slowdown in activity. after a mini-stimulus plan in the spring, the central bank (PBOC) announced in November an unexpected drop in interest rates, while making several injections of cash.
For many, the PBOC is expected in 2015 again cut interest rates . the reserve requirement ratio for banks to encourage lending
However, any massive stimulus plan appears excluded: not to jeopardize the efforts of “rebalancing” and keep it under control “finance the shadow “unregulated fueling debt and credit,” there should not be any large-scale monetary easing, “warns Liao Qun, an economist at Citic Bank.
Find the” balance between stabilizing growth and continued structural adjustments “: this is precisely the challenge that the Premier Li Keqiang has assigned Monday, according to state media, in government.
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