Germany / Indicators-Sharp rise in investor sentiment – Reuters BERLIN / FRANKFURT, Jan. 20 (Reuters) – Leading German economic indicators released since the beginning of the month: * INDEX ZEW JUMPS TO HIGHEST OF 11 MONTHS January 20 – The morale of German investors and analysts, as measured by ‘ZEW institute rose in January for the third consecutive month with oil prices falling and the weakening of the euro, which could promote a rebound in growth in the largest economy in the euro zone. The ZEW index jumped to 48.4, its highest level since February 2014, after 34.9 in December. This result is higher than the Reuters consensus, which was 40.0. The sub-indicator of current conditions has also increased from 10.0 in December to 22.4 in January. It also emerged above the Reuters consensus (14.8). The ZEW index was calculated based on responses from 233 analysts and investors interviewed between 5 and 19 January. * 1.0% DECLINE OF PRODUCER PRICE January 20 – The producer prices in Germany fell 1.0% on avera ge in 2014, the steepest annual decline since 2009, when she was 4.2%, announced the Federal Statistical Office, which attributed the decline to falling energy prices. Over a month, the contraction was 0.7% in December, which again had not been seen since July 2009. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a decline of 0.4% on month and 1.4% year on year in December. In one year, the decline was 1.7%. The main factor in this decline in producer prices was falling energy prices, falling 4.9% year on year and 1.8% on the month in December. Excluding energy, producer prices fell by 0.4% year on year and 0.2% over the month. * INFLATION HARMONIZED CONFIRMED TO 0.1% IN DECEMBER January 16 – The consumer prices in Germany rose 0.1% in December year on year in harmonized data (HICP), according to figures released Friday by the Federal Statistics Office, which confirm those reported in the first estimate. In non-harmonized data, consumer prices were unchanged in December and up 0.2% year on year. Table GDP * THE INCREASED TO 1.5% IN 2014 (FIRST ESTIMATE) January 15 – The gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany rose 1.5% in the first estimate in 2014, a figure in line with expectations is his best performance in three years, said Thursday the Federal Statistical Office. Europe’s largest economy had started the year well before contracting in the second quarter and avoid some recession in the third. Berlin could revise upwards its growth forecast for 2015 to 1.5% against 1.3% previously, has-been learned also from government sources. * INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY LOWER January 9 – Industrial production fell slightly in Germany in November (-0.1%), show figures released Friday by the Ministry of Economy. This result, which suggests that Europe’s largest economy ended 2014 on a sluggish note can be explained by a slowdown in the construction sector and a decline in energy production. The figure is lower than expected becau se the consensus predicted industrial production up 0.4%. * Table EXPORTS STILL FALLING January 9 – German exports fell in November for the second consecutive month with a decline of 2.1% on a seasonally adjusted, show data released Friday by the Federal Office statististiques. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a less pronounced decline of 0.2%. Parallel imports increased by 1.5%, reducing the trade surplus to 17.7 billion euros. Table DROP * STRONGER THAN EXPECTED ORDERS TO INDUSTRY January 8 – The industrial orders fell significantly more than expected in November, a given illustrating the fragility of the economic recovery, which had narrowly escaped the recession in mid-2014. These commands thus fell by 2.4% in November, while economists had expected a decline of 0.7%. In October, they increased by 2.9% (revised). The decline in November was mainly on the basis of orders from inside Germany, which plunged 4.7%. Those from abroad were down 0.7%. Capita l goods orders for their part, fell by 3.1%, including a fall of 7.2% of such orders passed from Germany. * NET DECREASE IN JOB SEEKERS NUMBER 7 January – The unemployment rate fell to a record low of 6.5% in December, according to data released Wednesday by the Federal Labour Office, which suggest that households should remain the main engine of growth in Europe’s largest economy. At 6.5%, unemployment rate (adjusted for seasonal variations (CVS)) is the lowest since the reunification of Germany in 1990. Economists had expected an average rate unchanged at 6.6% compared to November. In December 2013, the unemployment rate was 6.8%. The number of unemployed in Germany fell by 27,000 to 2.841 million, while economists polled by Reuters had expected on average a decline of 6,000. In raw data, unemployment numbers rose 46,669 to 2.764 million against 2.717 million in November. Table * SURPRISE INCREASE (+ 1.0%) RETAIL SALES IN NOVEMBER 7 January – Retail sales rose 1.0% in November compared to October, after already up 2.0% the previous month , according to data released Wednesday by the Federal Statistical Office. Economists polled by Reuters on average expected stability. In one year, however, they fell by 0.8% after rising 2.1% in October. In nominal terms, retail sales increased by 0.7% over the month but were down by 1.1% year on year. * Table A SLOW TO INFLATION 0.1% ONE YEAR IN DECEMBER 5 January – Inflation slowed further in December to 0.1% year on year, its lowest level in more than five years, statistics show in the first estimate released Monday by the Federal Statistical Office. This rate, calculated with European standards HICP in order to be compared with the figures of other states of the Union, is below the Reuters consensus, which included 0.2%, and its level of November confirmed at 0.5%. Compared to the previous month, HICP inflation was 0.1% also while the consensus was also 0.2%. Calculated the German national standards, consumer prices were unchanged in December and displayed on-year increase of only 0.2% after 0.6% in November, said the Federal Office. Final figures will be published on 16 January. Table of Statistics
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