Paris (AFP) – More and more deficits unemployed for unemployment insurance: Unedic body plan administrator, sees red for 2015, reflecting a “later than expected recovery.”
The joint body anticipates in its latest forecast released Friday, 104,000 unemployed without additional activity in France in 2015. This is still a slower rise after a 2014 year that has seen an influx 182,000 additional job seekers, according to the agency.
At the end of November, the employment center already counted 181,000 new unemployed, a record 3.49 million in France.
The Unédic is more pessimistic than at its previous forecast released in late September. She was counting on 150,000 additional job seekers in 2014 and 96,000 in 2015.
This degradation is due to “conditions of lowered expectations,” said Unedic in a statement. These projections are based on a revised 0.4% growth for 2014 and 0.8% in 2015. The government, it provides 1% this year
The result:. Unemployment under international office Labour Organisation (ILO) “continue to rise until the end of 2015″ for “to 10.3%” of the metropolitan workforce, provides Unédic. This rate was 9.9% in Q3 2014, according to INSEE.
“The weak growth limit the growth of total employment, which would be insufficient to offset the increase in the labor force “analyzes the body, which provides all the same 23,000 net job creation in 2015, after 79,000 in 2014.
This outlook is consistent with those of the French and international organizations, which provide no decline in unemployment before 2016
-. wronged 30,000 unemployed –
The rise in unemployment is likely to weigh on unemployment insurance finances. Deficits would deteriorate to 4.4 billion euros in 2015, from 3.9 billion last year. End of 2015, debt and unemployment insurance would peak at 25.9 billion euros, equivalent to 8 months of revenue of the regime.
The unemployment insurance are doubly sensitive to economic conditions: when unemployment rises, the system must compensate more job seekers while collecting fewer contributions
“The degradation is significant in relation to September forecast, due to. later than expected recovery, “said Patricia Ferrand (CFDT), who chairs the UNEDIC. In September, the agency expected to improve in 2015 with “only” deficit of 3.5 billion euros.
But Unedic assures his poor financial health does not pose risks to unemployment benefits
And the situation could have been worse, according to the agency. “At the end of 2015, the debt would have exceeded one billion euros without the new convention unemployment insurance “came into force on 1 July 2014.
The new rules approved by three unions (CFDT, FO and CFTC) and management, harden the regime of some recipients, such as the entertainment or executives across a large severance package.
However, intermittent, the government decided in June to offset the increase in their “deferred”, during which time they must wait before being compensation and offset the shortfall for unemployment insurance. This measure will apply until the entry into force of the next convention in July 2016.
Despite the gesture of the government, the agreement is threatened judicially. The CGT still claims its cancellation. Have not been successful in the first instance, the union appealed. The plant, which considers “unfair” negotiations that led to the Convention, also before the Council of State.
In addition, the union has denounced Friday in a statement, the negative effects of new rights “rechargeable” some recipients.
Entered into force on October 1, they allow the unemployed to earn new rights to compensation whenever they rework. But according to a note Unedic they injure 30,000 people a year who receive lower benefits that they were entitled under the former regime.
We can not “remain in the status quo, “admitted Jean-François Pillard (MEDEF), vice-president of Unédic, in which the social partners will” address the problem. “
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