Yann Le Guernigou
PARIS (Reuters) – French growth slowed slightly in the fourth quarter 2015, the good performance of investment to offset weakness of household consumption related to the mild weather and, to a lesser extent, the Islamist attacks of November.
The gross domestic product for the period came out up 0.2%, a level consistent the expectations of economists, according to preliminary estimates released Friday by INSEE.
The institute confirmed at the same time the 0.3% increase recorded in the third quarter, that on the whole of 2015, the French economy grew on average by 1.1%, its highest level since 2011, after + 0.2% in 2014.
The government forecast was 1.0%.
In a statement, Finance Minister Michel Sapin believes that “despite the inevitable consequences of the attacks (…) the French have not given up” in the last quarter.
“Business investment increased by 2% in 2015, construction finally off again at the end of year,” he said, adding, “The recovery must be amplified in 2016 and enable us to have more jobs. That is our priority. “
Ludovic Martin, economist at Credit Agricole, said that the composition of the final quarter GDP is” heterodox “.
“French growth is usually driven by household consumption but then it fell 0.4%, which is quite widely due to the attacks and mild temperatures,” he says .
At the same time, business investment rose for the fourth consecutive quarter, posting its highest level since early 2008, before the crisis, and “to rise, if not strong, begins to settle over time, “added the economist.
THE BACK STOPS CONSTRUCTION
Another positive, household investment (+ 0.1%) ended nine consecutive quarters of decline, which is consistent with the best orientation of the property market.
This trend reversal is a good omen for 2016 while the slump in the construction cost in the last two years of about 0.4 percentage point on average for French growth.
The rebound (0.7%) of the household consumption of goods recorded in December, after a month of November when their spending on clothing and energy had dropped, is also promising for the rest.
“If we add the surprise investment side, we believe that French growth should accelerate significantly in the first quarter 2016,” said in a note François Cabaut economist of Barclays bank.
In its latest forecast, published in late December, Insee expected a rise of 0.4% of GDP for January-March, a level also expected by economists surveyed by Reuters.
The little slowdown in the last quarter that the French economy in 2016 deals with gains of 0.35% limited growth.
Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist of Natixis Asset Management, notes that in these conditions, it will grow by 0.45% per quarter to the 1.5% withheld by the government for this year.
“It’s ambitious,” he wrote in a note.
(edited by Yves Clarisse)
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