A new unemployment record, but 2015 less bad than previous. At 15 months of the presidential election, the government hopes that all the lights finally turn green in 2016, crucial year for Francois Hollande.
After a decline in November, the number of job seekers without activity increased by 15,800 persons (+ 0.4%) in December, concluding the year with a record of 3.59 million unemployed in mainland France, announced Wednesday the Department of Labor.
The indicator reached also records including overseas jobseekers and conduct business. 5.78 million (+ 0.6%)
“The picture is dark black,” said the economist Denis Ferrand (WCC-Rexecode), told AFP, “especially when we compare ourselves with our neighbors: France is one of only two European countries, with Finland, where unemployment continues to rise.”
According to the Minister of Labour Myriam El Khomri, these bad results reflect “the effects of the decline in activity recorded by several sectors in the context that we have experienced in November and December.” The bloody attacks of November 13 caused heavy losses of activity especially in the tourism, hospitality and catering.
In recent months, the Pole employment indicator fluctuated significantly but beyond monthly developments, deemed highly volatile, the unemployment curve reveals a real upward trend, with 42,800 more unemployed in Class A (without activity) in France in Q4.
According to a recent analysis of Dares, service of Ministry statistics, figures employment center are indicative of a trend from a quarterly changes 35.000
One reason for optimism, however. employment center recorded throughout 2015 its more small increase in unemployment since 2010, with 89,900 additional unemployed (2.6%).
“This is a soft inflection return to growth, but it remains insufficient to reduce unemployment” AFP analysis Ducoudré Bruno, an economist at the OFCE.
The year 2015 in particular saw the youth situation to improve significantly (21,900, -4.0%), despite a hit Stop in December (+ 0.7%). Senior citizens, however, have seen their situation deteriorate inexorably (+ 0.6% over the month, + 8.4% yoy)
-. Drop ‘credible’ or ‘artificial’? –
Another black spot: the long-term unemployment, which continues to gain ground. End of 2015, 2.47 million job seekers, small business included, were registered at employment center for over a year.
The government wants to combat this scourge through vocational training. It will unlock a billion euros as part of its plan “emergency” for employment, to allow 500,000 additional unemployed people to train for careers of the future (digital, environment …) or occupations in labor shortages.
This device, designed for less skilled, “can have a statistical effect on employment center inscriptions” said Bruno Ducoudré. When they enter training, the unemployed go into effect Category A highly annotated, to category D, which often escapes the media radar.
In addition to this decline “somewhat artificial” The training could “have a more positive effect if they really meet the problem of unfilled deals,” added the economist.
François Hollande hopes that this effect will be felt this year. The president has often said he would not have the legitimacy to seek a second term in 2017 without decline “credible” in unemployment in 2016.
The Minister of Labour believed rightly that “the unemployment curve will reverse “this year. But the government already announced such an inversion in 2013 and the French no longer believe, according to recent polls
Denis Ferrand share their pessimism. “It is unlikely that growth is accelerating, so if down there, it will result from a statistical treatment of unemployment “.
As for the social partners, Pierre Gattaz (Medef) deplores, in a statement,” a worrying deterioration in the labor market ” , calling for “drastic measures”.
As for the CGT and the CFDT, they call in chorus to maintain “a high level of protection for job seekers,” while the social partners have an appointment in mid-February to renegotiate the compensation rules for unemployment insurance
1/27/2016 7:46:31 p.m.. – Paris (AFP) – By Jean-Philippe CHOGNOT – © 2016 AFP
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