(Boursier.com) – The government said this morning, “confirmed” in its forecasts, while the National Statistics Institute has unveiled its new growth projections
According to INSEE. GDP will grow by 0.1% in the fourth quarter and 0.3% in the first half of next year. “In mid-2015, the acquis annual GDP growth would be 0.7%, after three very dull years (+ 0.4% in 2012, 2013 and 2014),” it said in the monthly report .
“Given Scenario”
These forecasts are in line “in the scenario used by the government in September and recorded in the financial instruments which have been adopted by Parliament,” writes Finance Minister Michel Sapin. Thursday, the PLF 2015 has indeed been adopted: it forecasts growth of 1% next year after expanding 0.4% this year. “The acceleration of the expected activity is driven by manufacturing (+ 1% acquired mid-2015, after rising 0.3% in 2014) and a backlash on energy production (acquired from 2.2 % mid-2015 after -2.1% in 2014), “said INSEE. For his part, Michel Sapin highlights the coming effects of the Covenant of responsibility and recalls that the economy benefits from low interest rates, falling oil and the depreciation of the Euro.
Unemployment Rise
This slight improvement will not be sufficient to reduce unemployment. INSEE expects a stagnation of employment in 2014, 50,000 jobs were created in 2013. In the first half, only 18,000 are expected creations. In addition, the ICCC and the Pact of responsibility will serve as shock absorbers in the market sector. In this context, the Institute believes that the unemployment rate will be 10.6% of the working population in mid-2015, against 10.4% in the third quarter of 2014.
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