The forecasts of INSEE are encouraging. The French economy will find some color in the first half 2015, the GDP grew by 0.3% in the first and second quarters. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector continues to heal its wounds.
According to the Institute, the business climate in the manufacturing sector remains desperately poor, the synthetic indicator measuring the now fairly well below its long period average.
The builders sing an Announcement that the sector suffers
The gloom is now palpable in most sectors. This is particularly the case in the electrical, electronic and machine equipment or in the car. Despite the very positive from the manufacturers communications, sector, or at least companies that still produce in France, remains mired in crisis. Overall, in most sectors, business leaders surveyed anticipate a decline in their personal production prospects.
always Companies in surreffectif
In this context, nothing surprising that the INSEE anticipates further destruction stations in the first half despite a 0.4% increase in the production of all manufacturing industries in the first and second quarter. They are estimated at 12,000. In 2014, it was 37,000 jobs that were deleted.
In the absence of positive outlook, companies therefore continue to reduce their workforce. By doing so, they adjust their workforce demand and recovering productivity. According to the calculations of the OFCE, 250,000 people are overstaffed in companies. As these adjustments will not have been produced, or until the application does not permanently enroll up, job losses could unfortunately continue, especially in the industry.
Many measures have little effect for the moment
In this context, what can the government do? This debate! The Public Investment Bank, Bpifrance, the growth pact for competitiveness and employment, and its key measure, the tax credit for Competitiveness and Employment (CICE), New Industrial France, the Innovation Plan, innovation tax credit and finally the Covenant of responsibility and contribution reductions are measures and new devices that have been launched since 2012 to accelerate the recovery. What are the results? For now, it is difficult to tell. It is too early to do so, these tools can produce effects in the long term. At best they have helped to limit the damage
Fortunately, two good news brighten the outlook for industrial. The depreciation of the euro against the dollar and crude oil prices decline. Combined, these two factors should favor an increased rate margin businesses. After declining between 2013 and 2014, from 29.8% to 29.6% of gross operating surplus, the margin rate could jump to 30.8% in late June. At the macro level, a gain of 0.1 percentage point of GDP per quarter is expected by INSEE. Will it be enough to warm the business climate and stop job cuts?
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