Prime Minister Manuel Valls does not expect “good news” of the publication of enrollment in late November Pole employment (AFP / File / Philippe Huguen)
An improvement in the unemployment figures? Prime Minister Manuel Valls does not expect “good news” of the publication, Wednesday noon, the number of registered employment center in late November.
“Unfortunately we must not s wait for good news, “warned Tuesday the Prime Minister, cooled against the economic performances of the year from record unemployment, sluggish growth and job destruction.
” I fear that these numbers are not good because we still unfortunately experienced in November of job losses, corporate bankruptcies, “said Manuel Valls on Europe 1, suggesting a growing” low “.
The National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) confirmed shortly after gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.3% in France in the third quarter, following a decline of 0.1% in the second quarter.
The INSEE had already held 18 December that unemployment is forecast to rise by mid-2015, with growth of 0.3% in the first as in the second quarter 2015. According to the Institute, the unemployment rate is projected at 10.4% of the workforce end of 2014 (10.0% in the only metropolis) and 10.6% in mid-2015 (10.2% in France) .
-François Holland and Manuel Valls at the exit of the Cabinet December 22, 2014 to Elysee in Paris (AFP / Patrick Kovarik)
The president, Francois Hollande, was then admitted that growth would not be enough for unemployment to decline, even with 1% growth expected in 2015.
Most economists agree that it can not decrease if the annual growth rate is less than 1.5%. Consequence:. No body no plans to decline in unemployment before 2016
A new record for the number of job seekers on employment center lists had been reached in late October. The public operator has identified at this time 3.72 million unemployed people without work, including 3.46 million in France, having experienced the largest increase since February.
The destruction of 55,200 jobs in the commercial sector in the third quarter ended darken the prospects of improvement that had hinted the 7,000 jobs created in the second quarter. In total employment (market and non-market) stagnate in 2014 -after an increase of 49,000 jobs in 2013- and “increase of 18,000 in the first half 2015,” said INSEE
-. Rebound activity in 2015? –
For the National Statistics Institute expects that the Covenant of responsibility to become effective in 2015, assessing its impact to 80,000 jobs over the year.
First, the tax credit for the competitiveness and employment (CICE) “would lead to extra 10,000 jobs per quarter.” Meanwhile, “the first steps” of the Pact, consisting of exemptions from contributions and tax cuts, effective from January 1, “would support the use of up to 10,000″ extra posts per quarter.
Despite the difficulties in negotiating the Pact, it should ramp up. Professional branches begin to take quantified commitments in terms of hiring and of alternating home. To date, agreements have been signed in seven of the 50 largest branches.
The slight rebound in activity expected in early 2015 could win the job market by year’s end or early 2016, the impact of growth is generally being felt with two or three shift quarters.
While waiting for a restart of the employment in the private sector, the government continues its action on subsidized jobs mainly in the non-profit sector. It provides 445,000 new contracts for 2015, after 430,000 prescribed in 2014.
Manuel Valls said he for his part “convinced” that “investment companies” will “gradually return to growth” as well as “creating wealth and jobs.”
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