Tuesday, March 15, 2016

To watch this week: After the ECB, up to the Fed – Boursorama

After Mario Draghi last week, Janet Yellen, the Fed chairman, who will speak at a press conference this week.

After Mario Draghi last week, Janet Yellen, the Fed chairman, who will speak at a press conference this week.

last week, the acceleration of the European monetary stimulus and lowering of ECB rates has allowed markets to gain ground despite a mixed reaction on the day of the announcement. This week it is the turn of the US central bank to meet with the key to a possible rate change, which is very unlikely.

The speech of Janet Yellen will nevertheless very listened as the president of the Fed could deliver some additional guidance on the continuation or not of the rate hike in the coming months. Investors fear that including Janet Yellen enthuses good numbers of US employment and make a reason to gradually continue its rate rise cycle.

Outside this major meeting, several indicators published this week could affect the market trend

Monday, March 14

11h. eurozone: industrial production in January. Emerged above expectations at + 2.1% month on month, against 1.7% expected. The previous month, European industrial production declined

Tuesday, March 15

8:45. France: Inflation in February (consumer price index, Insee)

13:30. USA: index “Empire State” in March, reflecting the dynamics of the manufacturing sector (industrial dominant) in the New York area. This index has consistently disappointed in recent months, causing temporary market downturns. The expectations around this indicator remains bleak (level of -10 points), but remain higher than the level recorded in February (-16 points). Same time: US retail sales

15h. US. Stocks and sales of US companies

Wednesday 16 March

13h30: United States: Housing starts and building permits. Same time: US inflation February

2:15 p.m.. US: Industrial production in February calculated by the Fed

15.30. United States: Weekly changing US oil inventories. They continue to grow for a month, without hindering the rebound in oil prices

19h. United States: statement from the Fed on its rates . These should remain unchanged

19.30:. United States: speech of Janet Yellen in which the president of the Fed comment on the latest decisions of the Fed and return more detail on the US economy. Investors will be watching for any indication to anticipate a continuation or a temporary stoppage of rising rates in the US in the coming months.

Thursday, March 17

11 am: euro zone inflation in February

13h. UK: decision of the Bank of England on its rates. The refinancing rate should remain unchanged at 0.50%

13:30. United States: Weekly jobless claims in the US. Same time: manufacturing index from the Philadelphia Fed

Friday, March 18

2:30. China: evolution of real estate prices in February. Year on year, in January, prices of Chinese property were up 2.5%, continuing their recovery after a decline in microcycle observed in 2015

8:45. France: changing wages in 4 th quarter.

This Friday will be one of “days of the Four Witches” as the phrase designating a day due to arrival of certain products derivatives (options and futures). The volumes of stock transactions will therefore be higher than normal and logic would dictate that the volatility of markets is increased, which should not necessarily be the case given the lack of economic releases that day.

X. Bargue


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