Thursday, March 24, 2016

Unemployment: nothing argues for a clear improvement – Le Figaro

The private sector has re-created jobs in 2015, but not enough to bring down unemployment. The outlook for 2016 and 2017 are mixed. The figures for February are expected tonight at 18 hours.

This Thursday at 18 hours the number of unemployed registered at Pôle Emploi for the month of February will be revealed by the Ministry of Labour. They will mark a further decline after that of January? Impossible to answer at this stage even if two statistics argue instead for an increase in February. First, the number of unemployed registered at the employment center did not decline for two consecutive months since February 2008 … and he plays yoyo (one month down, the next rising) since last June.

Second, the number of outputs of employment center in February due to registration termination for default discount (temporary administrative debarment of one month) was unusually high in late January employment of -Pole moreover warned that it was therefore dangerous to comment on digits- and should, logically, lead to an increase the number of entries in February. That is certainly what happened in summer 2013 when the same thing happened: a decline (adjusted ex-post) of 31,800 registered in August and an increase of 53,800 the following month …

That said, the job market is recovering in France. But insufficiently so that households are feeling the benefits. In 2015, the private sector has actually created 82,300 net positions. The improvement is undeniable after three consecutive years of job losses: 62,800 in 2014 – 23,800 in 2013 and 108,300 in 2012. Last year, it is first interim who departed (50,600 jobs created). A common phenomenon in crisis. Companies that see their order books replenish but are not yet certain of the recovery first recruiting temporary, before engaging in CDI.



UNEDIC anticipates a very limited decline in unemployment in 2016 and 2017

Nonetheless, in France, the creations of jobs must reach 120 to 150,000 per year to absorb the increase in the labor force, itself driven by demographics. This threshold is not reached yet. Result, unemployment increased in 2015, although it was at a slower pace than in previous years. Thus, the number of registered job center in Category A (no activity) increased by nearly 88,900 people between December 2014 and December 2015 in the whole of France (Dom included).

The results of François Hollande, in terms of unemployment, is far disastrous. Since the beginning of his term, France had 685,000 job seekers in addition to category A. In late January 2016, 822,700 people were pointing at employment center for over three years, a population increase of 15% in one year. Strange for a head of state who has done every year since the end of 2012, the “reversal of the unemployment curve” a priority.

And the future does not look radiant. UNEDIC, the UI manager, anticipates a decline in unemployment, but very limited: 25,000 in 2016 and 26,000 in 2017 for registered in category A. France directly suffered from the weakness of his economic recovery. The measures taken by the government -prime hiring in SMEs 500,000 person-training plan will be insufficient to offset this weakness. Nor will the proposed El Khomri law which second version was largely gutted.

LikeTweet

No comments:

Post a Comment