The absence of bad news is in itself good news. INSEE, which published its forecast on Thursday for 18 hours, still expects a GDP growth of 0.4% in the first quarter and 0.4% in the second. The turmoil in financial markets in January and February, the slowdown in emerging markets and the global growth weighs not currently on growth in France
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While the moral of the bosses gave out last month in many developed countries, including France, ” could be a little more pessimistic “, recognizes Vladimir Passeron, head of the department of INSEE conditions. But “after the consumption figures and industrial production earlier this year, there is room for optimism. The latest indicators confirm that recovery is well underway, “.
The consumption accelerates
This recovery keeps the same engine as before. Although it rebounded last month, the price of oil is still lower than last year. Inflation will therefore remain virtually zero, which gives purchasing power to households. At the same time, wages continue to grow more or less at the same pace in 2015.
Therefore, consumption accelerates. It is expected to climb by 0.8% in the first quarter and 0.4% in the second. Seasonal temperatures returned to normal after a mild autumn, which boosts clothing purchases. And the effects of the attacks of 13 November are less felt, particularly in the airline and hotel and catering.
“The GDP growth is mainly based on household consumption “, summarizes Vladimir Passeron. In contrast, investment still households in housing is likely to remain depressed few quarters, which will further delay the recovery in the construction sector.
Then “many conditions encourage companies to invest more early 2016 , according to the economist. The demand outlook remains good. And companies have largely rebuilt their margins thanks to lower oil prices and labor costs down device “. The margin of enterprises will reach 32.5% in mid-2016 and be closer to its pre-crisis.
“The self-financing rate is found to its highest level since 2003, “, peak showering Florian, an economist at INSEE. And interest rates are still low. So that business investment would grow strongly in the first six months of 2016. “ The growth is based on solid foundations ,” said the Finance Minister Michel Sapin.
Slight drop in unemployment
the carryover in mid-2016 – which is what would be on GDP growth the year in case of stagnation in the second half – would be 1.1%. By mid-year, growth would be already equivalent to that of 2015. “The activity gradually gained a little tone although growth is still very strong” , says Vladimir Passeron . It will still be enough to slightly reduce unemployment. In metropolitan France, 9.9% of the workforce would be looking for a job in late June, that is to say almost the same rate until mid-2014. A very slight reversal of the unemployment curve. But for the mass underemployment snaps a real decline would require a more dynamic economy.
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