The end of the tunnel, finally? The number of unemployed is expected to decline from this summer, according Unédic, which estimates that more than 90,000 are expected to leave the lists of employment center by the end of 2016. But the precarious workers should be more.
Over the whole of 2015, employment center, which recorded late April a new historic high of 3.53 million job seekers without activity in France is expected ultimately to identify 12,000 supplémentaires.Mais as 35,000 additional job seekers have already pushed the door of an agency between January and April, the total number of job seekers without activity should decrease by 23,000 over the rest of the year, to arrive at this balance of 12 000 in 2015.
First year decline since 2007
About 2016, the decline would be frank with 68,000 job seekers without activity less. This would be the first year of decline since 2007, the year that preceded the global financial crisis. This forecast is significantly less pessimistic than that published in January. Unédic while counting on an influx of 104,000 new unemployed this year
In comparison, about 190,000 were registered and more last year. And more than 600,000 since the election of Francois Hollande in 2012.
Unédic the forecasts are based on a growth forecast of 1.1% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016 . But even in this case, the downside is that the number of job seekers conduct business (term contracts, temporary and part time) continue to increase: 134 000 this year and 38 000 in 2016. The return growth is accompanied initially short contracts, explains Unédic.
An economic recovery
“long-term transformation of the labor market “ shows ” sharply limited duration contracts’ , noted Destival Vincent, director of UNEDIC, at a press conference.
The Head of the State, which failed to reverse the unemployment curve at the beginning of his term as he had promised, determines a possible candidacy in 2017 to an improvement on the employment front. The OECD, as Unédic, think it could intervene in the second half of 2015.Ce beginning of economic recovery, coupled with the effects of the tax credit for Competitiveness and Employment (CICE) and the pact responsibility (40 billion euros redistributed to companies by the end of 2017), would recreate jobs “from the 2nd quarter 2015″ , according to the joint body.
The total number of job seekers compensated by unemployment insurance, however, still continue to rise, even digging the huge debt of the regime.
The deficit would be $ 4.6 billion euros in 2015 and 3.5 billion in 2016. The debt would peak and the end of 2016 to 29.4 billion, after 25.9 billion end of 2015.
1.9 billion in savings by the end 2016
It could reach 35.1 billion euros in 2018, according to a report Tuesday also unveiled, but which has a “extremely high degree of uncertainty” by Patricia Ferrand, CFDT President Unédic. “The positive effects of the economy are not enough to reduce unemployment insurance deficit in the coming years, so the debt will continue to rise” , she stressed, recalling that “Unemployment insurance is a very sensitive to the economic climate regime” .
The new compensation rules, negotiated by unions and employers at the beginning of last year, had particular objective to achieve economies for the regime. The gain will be $ 1.9 billion by the year end 2016. Entry into force in July 2014 despite a strong challenge to the entertainment industry who saw their hardened system, the current unemployment insurance agreement expires on June 30 2016. It will be back on the table of the social partners from late 2015 to early 2016. A negotiation that looks rough, under the regime of accounts, that the executive would like to see remediated.
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