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And one more bug. The unemployment figures for the month of May, made public Wednesday, June 24, increased again. How much? The answer is anything but obvious because data collection was affected by a “unusual event” brings employment center and the Ministry of Labour to disclose more digits. This episode, which complicates the reading of the statistics, almost comes two years after the incident that occurred in August 2013: at the time, the telecommunications operator SFR had committed a huge “missed” in the recovery by SMS the unemployed, which resulted in a sharp rise in the employment center lists outputs
This time the seed is different. The number of people who are out of employment center listings for failing to put update their records fell in unusual proportions. “If the behavior of updating the job seekers were identical to those usually seen” , the number of unemployed with no activity (category A) would have increased from 7 000 to 10 000 in France in May, said the Minister of Labour, François Rebsamen, in a press release (against 26 200 in April). If this correction operation is not made, the increase is more significant: 16 200, bringing the total to just over 3 552 million, a new record. Taking into account job seekers who have worked occasionally (Class B and C), the increase is estimated in a range between 32 000 and 42 000 (69 600 if no adjustment is made, for a total of 5.414 people in France and nearly 5,718,000 by including overseas).
In a statement, Mr. Rebsamen highlights “best trend-oriented economy and the gradual improvement of employment “. It is based primarily on statements from hiring more than a month that “rose 1.3%” in the last three months, and the recovery in the interim.
The release of the figures comes as many economists expect, for the next few months, falling unemployment. It would begin, according to the latest forecast by Unedic, “from the middle of 2015″ . But not enough to erase the rise of the first half: the number of unemployed would remain slightly higher at the end of the year, its level in January (+ 12 000). However, it is expected to decline next year (- 68000). However, these positive developments have a big gray area: the amplification of underemployment since the number of unemployed persons engaging in occasional (Class B and C) continue to increase (+ 134 000 2015; + 38 000 2016 ). Overall, the unemployment rate (as defined in International Labour Office), which reached 10% in mainland France in the first quarter to 9.9% descend again in late December, and 9.7% in late 2016, according to the Unedic.
“We expect an improvement in the second half” , adds Bruno Ducoudré in reliance of the last anticipation of the OFCE, released in April. Several factors contribute to sustain growth: euro depreciation favoring exports tricolor, declining oil prices, easing taxes on businesses (CICE, responsibility Covenant), etc. In this context, unemployment could drop to 9.8% of the workforce, by year end, according to OFCE.
The Insee, meanwhile, is a bit more careful . He expects an increase in “total employment” (market sector, non-profit, independent …) 114 000 jobs in 2015, with a net increase in the second half (71 000). This improvement should be enough to stabilize the unemployment rate to 10.4% for the whole of the territory (including overseas). “Unemployment could even fall if discouragement of older unemployed [perdurait] ” , INSEE added.
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