The government expects a deficit of 9.5 billion euros, 1 billion less than the previous forecast.
The 2015 Social Security accounts ahead a little better than expected. According to the report of the Audit Board (which meets on Monday afternoons), consulted by “Les Echos”, the deficit of the general regime is now expected to 9.5 billion euros this year instead of 10.5 billion so far. In 2014, it amounted to 9.7 billion (a nice surprise since the forecast had expected 2 billion more).
Overall Deficit almost stable at 13 billion euros
Overall, the deficit of Social Security (FSV + general scheme) would be almost stable from one year to the next, to 13 billion euros. The deficit in the pension business would amount to less than 1 billion (800 million) instead of the expected 1.5 billion last fall, and that of the family branch 2 billion instead of 2.3 billion.
These improvements have many reasons: better management, base effects, or a few surprises as employment-retirement accumulation. The reform of pensions in January 2014 not acquire new rights under a scheme when it was liquidated acquired rights in another plan, saving 100 million euros.
The recipes lacking
However, Medicare would be in the red to the tune of 7.2 billion (against 6.5 billion in 2014 ). “The targets are required and even revised downwards the expenditure side, does one justify the Ministry of Social Affairs are the recipes that sin due to inflation lower than expected. “ Indeed, in April the inflation forecast has been revised downward from 0.9% to zero. Remuneration followed: the growth of the wage bill should be only 1.3% in 2015 against 2% expected in the autumn, which will use the proceeds of social charges
Furthermore, the deficit of Old Age Solidarity Fund (FSV) is still expected to be 3.6 billion (3.5 billion in 2014). This is the FSV which supports retired unemployed, it is therefore not surprising that in a context of rising unemployment continues accusing the shock.
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