The divorce with the nuclear power, the only European country with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council with France, “ could have a disastrous effect on the EU’s foreign and security policy , “said Rosa Balfour, the German Marshall Fund analyst.
Especially since it ponctuerait a turbulent period. The continent has been hit by terrorism in Paris, Copenhagen and Brussels, since early 2015, he confronts disorderly unprecedented influx of migrants since 1945, must manage the cooling of relations with Moscow and almost see Greece leave the eurozone in summer 2015.
in this context, the Brexit appear as another blow. For even though “ no abrupt change ” is expected in European foreign policy after the British referendum of June 23, the “ loss in terms of image ” would real, noted Janis Emmanouilidis, director of the European Policy Center (EPC) in Brussels.
– ‘Navel’ –
This departure would show that “ Europeans are absorbed by their many problems such as migration or financial crisis, that they look at the navel. This does not give an image of strength, but of weakness “that could be exploited by Russia of Vladimir Putin and Chinese leaders, eager to expand their influence, says Emmanouilidis.
“ This further degrade the image if the Union narrowed for the first time in its history “, he says, while it has a Service diplomatic since 2010.
its leaders, including the current High representative Federica Mogherini, have headed the negotiations that led to a historic agreement with Iran on its nuclear program, have established themselves as mediator between the Serbia and Kosovo are part of the Quartet on the Middle East.
The Union has also developed over the years its military and civilian missions abroad against piracy off Somalia, Central African Republic and, more recently, the naval operation against Sophia smugglers of migrants off Libya.
“ From major powers like the United States, China, India … would see the EU weakened politically and geopolitically if a Brexit. They would not understand. they already do not understand that there can be a debate on membership of the United Kingdom to the EU “observes Vivien Pertusot, Brussels correspondent of the French Institute of international Relations (IFRI).
The start of the UK could still create a strategic focus to countries in its immediate neighborhood, south and east, especially at the expense of Asia and countercurrent US , he noted.
For in foreign affairs decisions are taken by member countries, and in the absence of London, Paris alone today has a “ global strategic view ” among 28.
According to the researcher, the Franco-German couple could not compensate alone this weakening because of “ fundamental differences ” between Paris and Berlin on the issue of military commitment.
– Sanctions –
In this area, London has always been opposed to the development of a common policy on defense and s’ was very selective when it came to provide troops or equipment of European missions.
But his departure will not allow for much progress in this area as other capitals like to jealously guard their sovereignty, rejecting everything, near or far, might look like a “ European army , “said Ms. Balfour.
In their eyes, NATO, which has 22 members belonging to the EU, remains the key forum for cooperation in this field.
However, regarding international sanctions, true arm of European diplomacy, Britain has often been a unifying factor or an engine falls Stefani Weiss, the founding Bertelsmann.
London is particularly tidy with heavy force behind economic sanctions in 2014 against Russia for its role in the Ukrainian conflict, while other capitals like Rome, Budapest and Athens did not hide their lack of energy.
“ The risk that those who do not support sanctions as enthusiastically become stronger without the UK ,” she predicted.
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