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concrete consequences of the vote, impact elsewhere in Europe, calendar … the answers to the questions that you asked us.
1. What will be the concrete consequences of the “Brexit” for expatriates living in the UK? And for students?
The consequences of the vote are not immediate for most. It now takes that out of the European Union put in place in the acts which take time. As the UK is in the EU, the rules on the free movement of persons remain unchanged. Not being a country of the Schengen area, it will always be an identity document proving membership of a country of the European Union to travel in the UK and to work.
Things corseront from the time the “Brexit” will be effective. As negotiated between the UK and the countries of the EU, it may need a visa to visit the UK. If the United Kingdom is to negotiate an agreement allowing it to remain in the single market, it is very likely that the free movement of persons is acquired. But the British government could also impose restrictions on work permits. Reciprocity applicable, the British would need a visa to work in a country of the European Union.
British students may depend on a future agreement in order to continue to benefit from Erasmus, the European program to study a year abroad. European students themselves, who so far benefited from reduced tuition fees in schools and British universities may have to pay more
Read also:. That actually changes the “Brexit “for the UK and for Europe?
2. The victory of Brexit she paves the way for other referendums in Europe?
Some countries look forward to the outcome of the referendum. According to Les Echos , “if Britain left the EU, a debate on the withdrawal of the Czech Republic will have to wait a few years” , Bohuslav Sobotka warned the Czech Prime Minister. In France, the National Front does not hide his ambitions to propose a referendum output of the European Union in case of victory in the presidential election of 2017. Similarly to the Party for Freedom, the Netherlands, or the Northern League in Italy, who would benefit from this pro-exit air call.
But while many eurosceptic politicians have hailed the victory of the “Brexit”, starting in France by Marine Le Pen, the famous “domino effect” feared by some remains of the realm of speculation.
3. Scotland and Northern Ireland could they leave the UK?
The first Scottish minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said Friday, June 24 that “ the possibility of a second referendum should be on the table and is on the table “ hundred percent of Scottish constituencies voted in favor of maintaining the EU
Ms Sturgeon said it was ” highly. likely that Scotland, which voted 45% for remaining in the United Kingdom in 2015 [the latter before the slim majority in its favor at the argument of maintaining the EU] offers [new] referendum on its membership “ to the British crown.
in Northern Ireland, the Deputy Prime nationalist Minister Martin McGuinness has proposed a referendum asking the question of the meeting of the north island (part of the UK since 1921) and the South, member of the European Union since 1973.
4. What timetable for the EU’s output?
The result of a referendum vote is not legally binding. Nevertheless, David Cameron said on June 24 that “the will of the British people must be respected” . The Prime Minister will leave to his successor the thorny issue of the release of the European Union.
For the UK leaving the EU, he must formally announce his intentions at a European Council as described in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This is great, a council will be held on June 28 and 29, and “Brexit” is obviously central to the discussions. A two-year period is intended to prepare the output, but can be shortened if an agreement is reached. It can also be extended, but this requires obtain unanimity of European states, without which the UK would be without preferential trade agreements or free movement agreement.
Will begin so long negotiations on the modalities of British disengagement, particularly concerning a possible access to the single market. The British Foreign Office announced that negotiations could lead to more than a decade of uncertainty, recalling that for trade treaties large scale, such as agreements between the EU and Canada, negotiations have taken years. These agreements are also not yet ratified.
5. How the British they vote by age group?
The British polls are not a reliability. Several also gave the yes winner until the eve of the election. The few surveys published on voters, if they remain capable of using various show anyway all the same trend: the vote in favor of “Brexit” is all that is higher in advanced age classes : according to the survey by the Institute Ashcroft, the “Brexit” collected 60% of the votes of more than 65 years, and 57% for 45-54 years, but only 27% of votes of 18-24 and 38% of 25-34 years.
These figures are however very probably weighted by abstention, structurally much higher among younger voters. It is therefore wrong to say that young people have “massively” voted against the “Brexit”. Those who voted did, but many have probably abstained
Read: Did the young Brits really “overwhelmingly voted” against “Brexit”?
6. The FN is not it taking huge risks by citing the “Brexit” as an example, before we even see the consequences?
The question had already arisen at the time of a possible “Grexit” (Greek exit from the euro) a year ago: this output does represent a leap in the dark that could discredit the FN project? Over the weeks, party leaders had called for a concerted and controlled release because no one really knows the consequences of such a decision. The “Brexit” is the real test that the FN was waiting to confirm or not the project (out of the European Union, let alone the euro).
Marine Le Pen said on Friday morning, that we should not be impressed by “hysteria of the markets” . Florian Philippot has already advanced that he was “possible” to a referendum on the EU without either “the Apocalypse” .
Let’s see in the coming weeks, the truth is that everyone is groping. Anyway, about the repeated Florian Philippot on the fact that France would not be in the euro in six months after a possible victory of Marine Le Pen in 2017 are pretty bad experiences in the party, where the it is estimated that this prediction is not credible.
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