The OECD expects a slight reversal of the unemployment curve … – Le Figaro

The unemployment rate should start a “mild” recession in the second half of 2015, after a peak in mid-year, according to the latest OECD outlook published Wednesday. The organization has significantly lowered its global growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016.

Some optimizes the employment front in France . While April has seen a dramatic increase in the number of unemployed in France, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) sees a “light” inversion of the curve of unemployment by the end of the year. According to its latest economic outlook, published Wednesday, the unemployment rate should start a “mild” recession in the second half of 2015, after a peak in mid-year.

Unemployment would reach 10.1% of the metropolitan workforce in the first quarter 2015 (+0.1 percentage points compared with end-2014) and 10.2% in the second before falling to 10.1 % by year-end and to 10.0% in late 2016, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which calls for “structural reforms of the labor market.” Including overseas, unemployment would rise to 10.5% at end 2015 and to 10.4% end of 2016.

These estimates confirm those of the Minister of Labour François Rebsamen, who waits ” a decline in the number of job seekers at the end of the year. ” “The weak business confidence still weighing on investment, which implies a delayed resumption of hiring and only a slight decline of unemployment” in the coming quarters, the OECD wrote in its report, which is based on a growth forecast of 1 , 1% in 2015 and 1.7% the following year.

It delivers a clean bill to the Covenant of responsibility and competitive employment tax credit (CICE), which will “lower the cost of labor about 1.4 point of gross domestic product (GDP) when they reach their full potential in 2016 “. But these policies for business competitiveness may be “offset by a dynamic increase in wages”, warns the OECD. Finally, the OECD advises the government to encourage the growing “skills”, including a “significant” increase learning in the secondary, “to fuel growth over the long term.”

The first quarter 2015 has seen the lowest growth since the crisis

With regard to the global economic growth, the OECD announced darkest forecasts. It significantly lowered its forecast for 2015 and 2016, relying now on 3.1% and 3.8% respectively, against 4% and 4.3% expected in March, and the organization has stressed the importance of increasing investments to stimulate the world economy. “The first quarter 2015 has seen the lowest growth since the crisis,” said the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, in particular highlighting the “sharp decline” of the US GDP and the largest slowdown than expected China.

(With AFP)