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The meetings “last chance” between Athens and creditors in Brussels ultimately did not lead to the agreement “reforms against money” as hoped, would enable Greece, whose coffers are now empty, to avoid a default with unpredictable and potentially dangerous consequences.
Sunday, June 14 evening, the Tsipras government negotiators have left those of the ECB, the IMF and the European Commission, on the finding of another failure, each remaining stuck to his guns . “Despite some progress, significant differences persist between the proposals of the Greeks and those of the three institutions, ECB, IMF and Commission. Discussions will resume in June 18 Eurogroup “ reported on Sunday night, a Commission spokesman said.
He added that the president of the institution, Jean -Claude Juncker remained convinced that “with more efforts on reforms the Greek side, and good political will on both sides, a solution can still be found before the end of this month. “ June 30, Greece must repay a portion of 1.6 billion euros from the IMF and could not afford, if not obtained before payment of all or part of 7.2 billion remaining to pay him under the second aid package to the country
Read:. Greece: the default scenario is precisely
A gap of 2 billion
The creditors are on their proposal of a fiscal space of 1% of GDP in Greece in 2015 (called the primary surplus, fiscal surplus before paying debts), and require further reform of the pension system and VAT. The Greeks still refuse categorically to lower the small pensions and impose a VAT to 23% on electricity. “Between their calculations and ours, to achieve a primary surplus of about 1% remains a gap of 2 billion euros “ assured, a Sunday night close to the negotiations.
Mr Juncker, who for five months now began the standoff between the government of Tsipras the radical left and its creditors, has always worked to maintain contact, again, last weekend, made a compromise proposal. He proposed again that to find the missing sums, Greek side, it is considered a drop in military spending, according to a diplomatic source.
Some 200 million could be saved in the short term, in 2016, in a country where military spending remains the second largest in the EU (2.3% of GDP) behind the UK. The ECB supported the proposal, “but again, the IMF has rejected it, explaining that these economies did not count for structural reforms” adds the diplomatic source.
But difficult to continue without the IMF. The Committee has already repeated, no question of an agreement if it is not validated by the three “institutions”, IMF, ECB, Commission. Chancellor Angela Merkel had also been very clear in the last G7 in Bavaria in early June, when she told her peers that there would be no agreement with Greece if it were not for the three institutions on board
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The prospect of an agreement ” clean ‘away
The discussions are not broken, ensured several sources creditor side, but “The ball really is in the camp of Athens’ do we repeated the urge. And Brussels, it is rather the pessimism prevails. Because the prospect of an agreement “clean”, which takes place according to the rules of the Eurozone without “payment incident” Greek, walks away.
Many are convinced that the strategy Alexis Tsipras is to land a “political” agreement. In Athens, he is in a very difficult position: he is asked to approve an agreement that still look like a new austerity plan, while the left wing of his party going to press the clash with Brussels. But the Greeks, according to polls, are for the maintenance of the country in the euro area.
Few sources in Brussels believe that agreement can be reached at the Eurogroup, the meeting of the 19 ministers of the Eurozone, from June 18 “This is not the place to discuss the detailed figures, these things should have been discussed before” reports a source close to creditors. Difficult, moreover, to hope that something so a meeting where antagonisms were exacerbated over the months. Between Greek Yanis Varoufakis, that no more of his peers said Eurogroup not stand, starting with the German Wolfgant Schauble …
Many people are convinced that Tsipras hopes to reach an agreement at Heads of Council of State and Government on 25 and 26 June in Brussels. But do already know for days, it will probably be too late for the payment of money to Greece before June 30 can be released. They must first obtain approval from several national parliaments, including the German Bundestag.
Greek Default envisaged
The coming days will be decisive. The ECB will look very carefully outflows of Greek banks. Mario Draghi was to be interviewed at the European Parliament Monday afternoon, a planned year long which is very delicate. There had to pass the message that in June 2014, Greece was a little better from an economic viewpoint. But today, yet without any additional austerity measures have been imposed, it is much less well (she is again in recession), mainly due to political instability. Wednesday, June 17, at their weekly meeting, the governors of the institute of Frankfurt should discuss the situation, and perhaps, if no agreement is in sight of the Eurogroup tomorrow, send a signal to the market.
creditor side, it has already been indicated in recent days, we now considering the possibility of a Greek default. And what it would involve. Probably a reaction of financial markets, and perhaps panic Greek savers who could rush to their banks to withdraw their euros. The treasury managers of the eurozone, meeting in Bratislava Thursday, June 11, were even concerned that whether Greece had a law on control of capital. In case, if necessary, in an emergency, make decisions to save the banking system of the country from bankruptcy
Read also:. The eurozone is preparing for the scenario a Greek default
Some fantasized scenario – in Argentina or Cyprus – since March, hoping that in the end, such a warning would eventually bend the government Tsipras. Others go so far as to evoke, on condition of anonymity, that it should, in cases of extreme Grexit, have prepared proposals to strengthen in a hurry integration of the Eurozone, to avoid its break. Atmosphere …
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