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That should bring a smile to François Hollande, at a time when the president wants at all costs the good news to announce. Especially as it relates to the very strategic field of economic performance. The investment of French companies should finally take off in the second half 2015, according to the monthly report published Thursday, June 18 by INSEE
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“Many factors favor the restart: the conditions of domestic demand and external [related to the recovery in the euro zone] are more positive. The margin of businesses expected to increase, thanks to the combined effects of competitive employment tax credit [IECC] , the pact of responsibility and declining oil prices. Finally, financing conditions have eased further [because of the loose monetary policy of the European Central Bank, which facilitates access to credit] “ explains Laurent Clavel, head synthesis of the economic division of INSEE.
For now, it is still a thrill. Business investment is expected to grow only 0.3% in the second quarter as production capacities are “still not intensively used” , noted INSEE. But the second half should see a significant acceleration (+ 0.6% and + 0.8%). As for corporate margins, they are expected to peak at 31.3% in the second quarter 2015, against 29.7% last quarter 2014.
Embellished
Especially with business investment, this is the second stage of the rocket taking off. So far, the start of the French recovery was mainly due to the rebound in consumption, boosted by the increase in household purchasing power (due to the decline in oil prices and low inflation). By cons, investment remained sluggish desperate: many areas still suffering from overcapacity. As for the famous “confidence” necessary for entrepreneurs to project into the future, it was sorely lacking. And without investment, impossible to expect a sustained recovery with one day a massive impact on unemployment …
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“Business investment should take over consumption in the second half, as a number of checks have risen” summarizes Vladimir Passeron, head of the department of conditions to Insee.
This improvement is reflected in the investment intentions of entrepreneurs in the manufacturing industry. But also, new fact in services, where, since April, the opinions on the matter are above their long-term average.
GDP up 1.2% in 2015
In total, French growth should remain “relatively strong” in 2015, ensures the INSEE, which confirmed its forecast of a rise 1.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) over the year. At the end of 2015, the trend should reach 1.6% compared to the end of 2014, a sign of some momentum.
This optimistic tone yet must be qualified in the long term. “ The growth will not regain its pace of 2010 and 2011, which was about 2% per year,” warned Mr Clavel. Business investment is expected to grow by 0.9% on average over the year, reaching 4% in 2010 and 2011. As for household investment – mainly real estate – it is expected to decline sharply (- 4.7%) against 1.5% in 2010 and 1% in 2011.
Also, “the investment could be more sluggish acceleration, if the rate capacity utilization of use does not increase in the coming quarters, “ warns Vladimir Passeron – that is, if the production is not bright enough to justify a general renewal of the machines eg
business climate indices also show a gap between the industry – driven by exporting companies, the highest since the summer of 2011 – and the building and services, still lagging behind. Not to mention the possibility of a destabilization of the euro in case of an unfortunate outcome area of Greek case, which could question everything …
Moderate Optimism
These flats explain the moderate optimism INSEE on the employment front. The market employment should grow by 41,000 jobs in 2015, after a decline of 45,000 in 2014. However, it was not until the second half for the acceleration allows to stabilize the unemployment rate to 10.4% (it reached 10.3% in the first three months of the year).
For its part, the famous “reversal of the unemployment curve” would take place in 2015 that “if discouragement senior unemployed continues, “ learnedly believes INSEE. A reference to older job seekers, many of whom, by weariness, renounce actively looking for work, lower bound mechanically unemployment figures … “It remains unclear whether this phenomenon is punctual or endure” Passeron admits
Finally, a number of estimates of INSEE. – which are based on declarations of intent ex ante from the leaders business – need to be verified in practice. This is the case of the consequences of CICE, which should be the source of 80,000 jobs created over the year, or the effects of measures to “overdamping” announced in April by the government.
“There are ten years, we would not talk about recovery phase with such figures. We stay on a low annual average growth! But it should be sufficient at the end of the year to lead to higher employment and stabilize unemployment “ concludes Mr. Passeron.
This enthusiasm, real but moderate, was perceptible Planète PME fair, which brought together the small masters at the initiative of the CGPME in Paris on 17 and 18 June “The government measures go in the right direction, but business remained extremely calm,” indicates Kuchly Pierre, head of ERA-SIB, an industrial valve company in the Val-d’Oise . “We must continue to inject confidence,” adds Christophe Plée, president of French Polynesia CGPME. Before sliding smile: “You will see, the Socialists will end up liking businesses …”
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