Three days of a Eurogroup decisive principle, Athens and its creditors still passing the buck.
countdown is ticking and, as so often since the victory of SYRIZA in Athens in late January, they place the responsibility for a possible failure of the negotiations, in a scenario that looks increasingly to the race cars to the edge the cliff in Rebel Without a Cause with James Dean. The fall over the precipice is scheduled on June 30
“The ball is in the camp unquestionably Greek government,” said, summing up the tone of the creditors, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi, who was heard by the European Parliament. Alexis Tsipras, the Greek Prime Minister, had earlier said the opposite in this case he would “wait patiently” for creditors of Greece “rally to realism.” In other words, they make concessions.
Athens, on one side, the European Union, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on the other, failed to get agree this weekend on the reforms that Greece must do in exchange for the payment of aid of 7.2 billion euros blocked since the summer. On June 30, failing agreement, the current aid plan expires. And the same day, Greece has to repay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF.
Continuing uncertainties tire markets. Like all European markets, the Paris Stock Exchange finished Monday’s session in the red, down 1.75%. The Euro Stoxx 500 – the highest market capitalization in the euro area – has lost 1.84%. As to the Athens Stock Exchange, volatile, she still won by nearly 5%. In the market for debt of States, bond yields continued to tighten.
Mario Draghi who spoke publicly Monday for the first time since June 3, when he warned that he would have to get used to the volatility of the markets, has sought reassurance on a point. “We know from the statements of Greek officials, the payments of Greece are insured in full and on time.” One way to disqualify the recurrent blackmail the Greeks to default.
by returning responsibility for a possible agreement “elected leaders” who are meeting on Thursday in Luxembourg for a Eurogroup, the central banker, who will attend, said he controls a crucial lever for the funding of the Greek economy. The ECB will continue to provide Greek banks for emergency funding “as long as (they) will be credit-worthy.” The institution reassess every Wednesday the ceiling for this line called ELA which now reaches 118 billion euros. Or solvency depends not only ratios but also to further negotiations. A lack of agreement at the end of the month could accelerate the flight of capital, thus degrade the solvency of banks, which would lead the ECB to suspend these emergency funding.
On negotiations themselves, Athens finally agreed this weekend to target a primary budget surplus (excluding debt burden) 1% as desired by the creditors. The way to achieve this is, however, still the subject of disputes.
In these circumstances, it seems unlikely that a comprehensive agreement is reached Thursday in the Eurogroup. “Expedients can always be found to spend 30 June, slips a source in Brussels, or hope for a solution” political “in extremis the EU summit on 25 and 26 June.” But the longer we wait, the more wobbly the solution will be.
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