Greece, the risk of an exit – Le Dauphiné Libéré

A Grexit, a Greek exit would not be so bad, say the proponents of hardness. The eurozone now has two years of the financial instruments necessary to prevent contagion of the crisis … It is true, and it’s wrong. For the Grexit has multiple risks of various types.

France pay

The bill Grexit would amount to 644 euros per French, calculated an expert IESEG School of Management: non-repayment of a loan of 11.4 billion from 2010, and 31 billion of loan guarantees made to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). For a German taxpayer, the average bill is 669 euros.

The recovery in danger

A net Grexit could stop the start of economic recovery in Europe. And even beyond: a failure “would create a general uncertainty in Europe and the global economy,” warned US Secretary of State treasure, Jacob Lew. The Greek crisis concerns the entire world economy, which hesitates between recovery and stagnation, and needs confidence.

The debt burdened

This crisis of confidence can result says Enrico Letta, a strong rise in interest rates, so the cost of debt repayment. The most indebted countries like Italy would then be threatened with a new financial crisis – and here we do not talk more than 2% of euro area GDP, as for Greece, but the third largest economy in the area, weighing nearly 17% of the total. The making of a rescue would immediately higher, if not priceless. The crisis spreads “naturally”, it can also be provoked: If Grexit, “the Anglo-Saxon world would do everything in its power to fragment gradually the euro area”, said recently President of the Commission Jean-Claude Juncker.

The Europhobia encouraged

The economic and financial risk is real, political risk even more, said last week in our newspaper Commissioner Peter Moscovici: “The euro is a political project [...], any departure would be the beginning of a bad bank.” Imagine also the impact of financial crisis on the parliamentary elections coming in Portugal (September), Spain (November or December) …

The geopolitical threat

It is rarely mentioned, but “the risk is mainly geopolitical,” said Guillaume Duval, author of “Enough of this Europe? Me too … “(Textual). Greece is indeed a tension area between the Balkans, Turkey, the Mediterranean against Libya … Greek Prime Minister also stresses that geopolitical risk by traveling today in St. Petersburg, Putin meet a ostracized by the European Union.

So, okay, a Grexit? It would be better not to have to check it out.