+ 1.2%: INSEE is optimistic for growth in 2015 – L’Express

Better and better. In its new “Conjoncture” published Thursday, the National Statistics and Economic Studies Institute expects growth in gross domestic product (GDP) “relatively strong end of 2015″, after three years “dull”.

The Insee expects + 0.3% in the second and third quarters and 0.4% in the fourth, leading to an annual average growth of 1.2% for 2015. This prognosis joined the forecast of the Bank of France published in early June and confirms the government still officially expects 1% growth in 2015, although he has hinted that he did not rule out a higher figure in the end. “By providing a greater than 1% growth this year, INSEE confirms that France is clearly back in the business of recovery phase”, welcomed the Finance Minister Michel Sapin.

But even if these figures clash over previous years, “GDP does however not regain growth in 2010 (+ 1.9%) and 2011 (+ 2.1%), mainly due a still modest restart business investment (+ 1.0% in 2015 against 4.0% on average in 2010 and 2011) and the sharp decline in the household sector (-4.7% in 2015 against + 1.5% in 2010 and 1.0% in 2011), “tempers INSEE.

no inversion of the curve of unemployment

According to the institute, the unemployment rate is expected to increase by 0.1 points in the second quarter to reach 10.1% in France and then stabilize at that level until the end of the year, with an expected increase in job creation (60 000), which would absorb the bulk of the population increase active (+63 000). However, it does not foresee for the time the light curve inversion unemployment announced by the OECD and UNEDIC (unemployment insurance) for the second part of the year.

On the business side, investment is expected to accelerate in the third and fourth quarter (+ 0.6% and + 0.8%), mainly due to margin which dates back significantly thanks to credit Tax Competitiveness and Employment (CICE), employer contributions cuts planned in the responsibility Pact, the decline in oil prices, as well as the easing of external financing conditions to facilitate access credit.

Indeed, business investment is expected to take over in the second half of consumption, which ought to remain relatively strong, mainly because of the strong purchasing power (+ 1.9% in 2015, against 1.1% in 2014) carried himself particularly “by the smaller increase in the tax burden.”