She had already warned it was ready to continue on this path if necessary. The Russian central bank is forced to intervene to “save the ruble” has lost a quarter of its value in November. The institution has identified a point Thursday, December 11 its key rate, bringing it to 10.5%, with the hope to support its currency and curb inflation.
But this decision, announced after the monthly monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Russia, did not seem to convince the market because it was followed by new records weakness of the Russian currency to 68.98 rubles per euro and 55.45 rubles to the dollar.
The “minimum” to stem the fall
Most economists considered inevitable increase in the cost of money in a context of accelerating inflation and collapse of the ruble. It has lost a third of its value since the beginning of the year against the euro and 40% against the dollar.
The increase announced “ is the minimum that could make the bank Central saw the ruble down recently “ Commented economists London firm Capital Economics.
” The strengthening of inflation expectations and the depreciation of ruble pose substantial risks to inflation, “the central bank said in a statement. “In case of further aggravation of inflationary risks, the Bank of Russia will continue to increase its policy rate,” she said.
Ukrainian crisis and collapse of the barrel
The institution believes the rise in consumer prices to 9.4% over a year now and expected to reach 10% by the end of the year. In the first quarter 2015, inflation should even exceed this level. The fall of the ruble and the food embargo imposed by Moscow to Western countries because of the crisis in Ukraine will represent, according to her, about 4.9 points of inflation at the end of the year .
The Bank of Russia, an institution that has maintained a reputation for unusual independence in Russia, is placed in a delicate situation, pressure to calm a storm caused by factors that do not depend on it: Ukrainian crisis but also more recent collapse of oil prices.
In this context, the central bank expects growth “ near zero” for 2015, but for 2016, pushing any prospect of recovery in 2017.
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