Paris Bourse: the CAC 40 suspended geopolitics absence of other news
Paris (awp / afp) – The Paris Bourse is likely to fluctuate in the coming days at the rate of geopolitical crises, especially that ‘in the middle of August investors are largely absent and the economic indicators of small importance.
The CAC 40 had the greatest difficulty to restart this week, gaining 0.64% to close on Friday at 4174 36 points. However, its performance since January 1 is always negative 2.83%.
“The market is beginning to integrate into its valuation geopolitical problems,” as evidenced by its low level compared to last month, finds Aymeric Diday, head of discretionary portfolio management to SPGP.
He said “next week could be quiet, as many investors have come out in early August and will not return until the end of month or early September, but it will depend on the improvement or no geopolitical situation. “
Investors live for several weeks at the rate of international crises, especially in Ukraine, which prevented up now all indices rebound supported and maintained the volatility of stock markets.
Friday’s announcement of the destruction of Kiev shielded from Russia by Ukrainian forces revived fears while the statements of President Russian Vladimir Putin, saying his country should not “cut the rest of the world,” had made a slight relaxation.
“The market remains indecisive and lack of catalyst” to rebound significantly above 4200 points Dembik observed Christopher, an economist at Saxo Bank.
The CAC 40 was still evolving over 4400 points at the end of July, before the Ukrainian tensions outweigh any other factor.
CENTRAL BANKERS MEETING
The influence of geopolitics on the market could be strengthened by the fact that trading volumes tend to decline sharply around August 15, which is likely to accentuate the jerks clues.
In addition, there will be few economic indicators leading to be on the agenda, except figures on real estate in the United States or yet PMIs activity in the eurozone.
The main economic meeting should be the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the intervention of his Chair Janet Yellen, at the meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole in the United States.
But, “the central bank should announce anything new in the immediate” cautions Mr. Dembik.
This will not prevent investors to be on the lookout for any evidence regarding the timing of a rate hike by the Fed, especially after recent indicators reflecting the strong economy American.
The euro zone is in turn much less flamboyant, as evidenced by the grim statistics of growth in the second quarter, and low inflation.
“Geopolitics weighs on the figures for growth in the euro zone, but [GDP growth] is extremely low and shows that the economy can not forge ahead, “according to Diday, who believes that new measures ECB could help the market to revive.
“The risk is to have exaggerated expectations about the ECB in September, even though recent measures have not yet all been implemented “warns Mr. Dembik.
Meanwhile, François Duhen strategist Credit Mutuel-CIC does not expect economic improvement” before the beginning of autumn at best. “
However, the strategist does not favor the worst-case scenario for the European markets, far from it.
According to him, “if not an element of attraction, recovery European indices should still be a factor against a recall movement made massive profit. “
In other words, from a historical point of view, the market is not very expensive, not only for as its potential for appreciation is important.
Mr. Duhen, a rise of scholarships is contingent “upon a reduction in geopolitical risk premium (mainly Ukraine), tangible signals recovery growth, or if the implementation of structural measures to promote recovery “
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(AWP / 08/15/2014 6:52 p.m.). <-
(AWP / 15/08/2014 6:52 p.m.) ^ ->
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