Eurozone: the recovery continues but is more fragile than ever – Boursorama

Eurozone: the recovery continues but is more fragile than ever – Boursorama

The recovery in private activity continues in the euro zone despite a decline in August from July, but still fragile, has Thursday the firm Markit, which publishes the PMI (AFP / File / Daniel Roland)

The recovery in private activity continues in the euro zone despite a fall in August from July, but remains fragile, said Thursday Markit firm, which publishes the PMI.

The composite PMI for the euro area stood at 52.8 points according to a first estimate , against 53.8 in July. When it exceeds 50 points, it means that the business grew as she folds if it is below this threshold.

the index is now enrolled in a higher level 50 points for the 14th consecutive month, says Markit.

“The economy of the euro area shows a steady increase in August, the area seems to know a new rebound after announcing disappointing GDP figures the area of ​​the single currency, “said Rob Dobson, economist at Markit.

However, he tempers,” with a PMI fell slightly to 52.8, growth in the region expected to reach 0.3% to 0.4% in the third quarter. So it is unlikely that the job market is picking up significantly. “

The economist noted several positive points like the fact that Germany “grow solidly” and that “the French economy is stabilizing after a brief period of contraction.” In Germany, the index rose from 55.7 in July to 54.9 in August, while in France, he climbed from 49.4 to 50.0.

In addition to the core Franco-German, improvement continues. activity increases for the 13th consecutive month and employment rose slightly

In August, the activity also grew well in manufacturing than in the service sector, even if growth slows in both sectors.

Pressure on the ECB

But Markit calls the cover of “moderate and fragile,” too weak to encourage companies to hire enough to have an effect on unemployment trends. Besides the economic and geopolitical uncertainties also hamper job creation.

In general, economists have shown little excited about the figures published by Markit. The consensus expected a less pronounced slowdown, with an index to 53.4.

“The index is at its lowest level this year,” said Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics, even if it is “too early to start speculating about a return to recession.” The manufacturing index, at 50.8, is at its lowest level in 13 months, points his colleague Martin Van Vliet of ING Bank.

This shift “could mean that the Russian-Ukrainian has an impact on manufacturing activity that exceeds the only direct commercial ties, “he said.

For the three economists, the new PMI will add pressure on the European Central Bank to take further measures to support the economy of the euro zone.

“However, we believe that the ECB will remain wait in the coming months, as it assesses the impact of stimulus measures launched in June the economy, “including its lending program targeted to very long term (TLTRO) to allow banks to refinance on favorable terms, anticipates Martin Van Vliet.

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