INSEE confirmed Thursday the hopes of the government predicting a small acceleration of growth, however, will have no effect on unemployment and very dependent on the oil price as the value of the euro. The INSEE expected after 0.1% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, accelerating to 0.3% in the first and second quarters 2015, according to his last ” memo on the economy. ”
If INSEE has not made a forecast for the whole of 2015, he delivered a valuable indication by estimating 0.7% “over growth” at the end of the first half of 2015. This technical term describes what would be the annual growth even in business failure in the second half. INSEE also said that the summer 2014 summer 2015 French growth should be 1%, whereas it had been anywhere between summer 2013 and summer 2014.
These projections are consistent with the hope of the French government of a 1% growth for the whole next year. Finance Minister Michel Sapin has also ruled in a statement that “the Government of growth scenario (was) confirmed,” but felt that the acceleration was not “strong enough”, which, he said, calls for a European response.
Decline of the euro and oil
“A number of brakes are released at the end of the year and make us a bit more optimistic,” said Vladimir Passeron head of the economy department at INSEE, at a press conference. This optimism has for much of external factors: the combined decline of the euro and oil prices, good for purchasing power as for competitiveness, weighs “a little less than half” of the expected growth in France next summer, according to Mr. Passeron.
This windfall could even increase: INSEE has made its forecast by setting the price of oil at 70 dollars. Thursday, he moved below 65 dollars. Vladimir Passeron also found that some factors internal to France supported the activity: public aid to businesses, including the tax credit for competitiveness and employment, halting the increase in the tax burden or stabilization of household housing expenses, which fell this year. This leaves hope for a lull to the construction industry, in disarray
But optimism statisticians stumbled on the labor market. INSEE expects the unemployment rate France further increased to 10.6% in mid-2015, against 10.4% on average in the third quarter 2014.
“All signals are green”
For if the French growth resumes, “all signals are green,” according to Passeron, because of “the wait” of particular businesses. Their investment will increase only “slightly” early next year, despite a positive environment of low interest rates and margins straightening “clearly”. Household consumption is expected to grow by 1% between mid-2014 and mid-2015, but not quite as fast as the purchasing power, a sign that the French will still fill their precautionary savings.
Out of the borders, surprises could come from the international environment, particularly in emerging countries, still febrile. About specifically Russia, struggling for a few days, with financial and monetary turmoil, INSEE estimated that three percentage points of GDP less in Russia, where go a little over 2% of French exports, would cost 0, 1 percentage point of GDP in France. Michel Sapin also appealed to worry about the “abnormally low” inflation, that INSEE expects “almost zero by mid-2015″ in France.
That should, according to the Minister of Finance, “bring European States to deepen their discussions on the economic situation and the appropriate policies in this context.” Sapin has not ripped the European validation of Accounts of France in 2015, more onerous than expected.
No comments:
Post a Comment