Le Monde | • Updated | By
The euro zone would find “some momentum” and the French economy would emerge from three years of near stagnation. The gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.3% in each of the first two quarters. In mid-2015, year on year (June 2015 compared to June 2014), it would increase by 1%: an admittedly modest growth, but much better than that recorded since mid -2011. And if everything is not perfect (the unemployment rate would further increase to 10.6% of the working population and employment continue to decline in the market sector), there are at least five reasons to believe that the upturn ‘foresee forecasters INSEE.
1 / The business climate is improving
After playing yo-yo for a year and to have deteriorated in the summer of 2014, the business climate has improved significantly in November. The synthetic indicator that measures the rose 3 points (98 points), erasing its summer decline and approaching its long-term average (100). The improvement is noticeable in the manufacturing industry. INSEE noted that manufacturers are more optimistic about their production prospects – the balance is frankly restated -., Suggesting an acceleration in the first quarter 2015
2 / World trade is dynamic
The global trade slowed in recent years. It has greatly accelerated in the third quarter 2014 (+ 2% after + 0.7% in the first quarter) amid recovery in the US and the UK and in many other developed countries. The first half of 2015, the exchange would increase by 1% per quarter, approaching their quarterly pre-crisis trend (+ 1.3%). The request to increase France and all French exports, supported by the depreciation of the euro, would grow 1.1% in the first quarter of 2015 and 1% in the second.
3 / The favorable effects of the decline of the euro and oil prices on activity
For an oil-importing country like France, the sharp decline in the price of black gold causes a short-term reduction in consumer prices but also prices of production, so increasing margins. External effects add to these mechanisms: imports of oil producing countries from France but the slow increase of importing countries. It is this last effect that will boost French exports. The depreciation of the euro is in the same direction. In total, according to Insee, which makes the assumption of $ 70 a barrel and $ 1.23 per euro, the declines in the euro and oil prices since the summer would enhance French growth 0.4 by the second quarter of 2015.
4 / purchasing power and household consumption increased
After stagnating in 2013, household purchasing power is frankly would correct during the year 2014 (+ 1.2%), due to the acceleration of earned income, a lower tax burden (+ 2% after 4 , 2%) and, of course, low inflation. After slowing to + 0.3% in half-year slide in the second half 2014, related to the tax schedule, the purchasing power accelerate again to 1% in the first half of 2015. The household consumption, traditional engine of French growth , would increase by June, but a little less than the purchasing power and the savings rate goes back to 16%.
5 / corporate profit margins would recover much
Last positive but not least, the rate of margin businesses, which reached in 2013 its lowest since 1985, would correct themselves dramatically by June 2015 Thanks to the scalability of the tax credit for Competitiveness and Employment (CICE), the establishment of the Covenant of responsibility and solidarity (PRS), but also emphasizes the INSEE, because wages slow down. Incidentally, INSEE estimated eighty thousand the number of jobs created by the IECC and PRS in 2015. The scalability of these devices would restore air companies. A virtuous effect of addition, which could encourage them gradually to invest more. They had not known for a long time such conjunction of good news.
No comments:
Post a Comment