The ruble continues its descent into hell. After his fall by almost 10% Monday, December 15, the Russian currency has plummeted 20% Tuesday, reaching new record low against the dollar (80 rubles to the dollar) and euro (100 rubles per euro). This is a shock on a scale that had not been seen for 15 years. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble sold nearly half of its value against the dollar. This ongoing slump revives memories of 1998, when the collapse of the ruble led, in a few days to a defect in Russia on its debt. Overview of issues raised by this crisis.
1. Why the ruble collapsed
The fall of the Russian currency due primarily to three factors: speculation against the ruble, the decline in oil prices Oil and Western sanctions against Russia because of its role in the Ukrainian crisis. “The fundamental element of this collapse is first very big speculation against the Russian currency Judge economist Jacques Sapir. For several weeks but especially since Friday, December 12, there is a strong speculative movement against the ruble and it comes for a good part of Russian speculators. “
The oil drop also contributes strongly to the crisis. Tuesday, Brent dipped below 60 dollars for the first time since July 2009. “This is very bad news for Russia, which is highly dependent analyzes François Chevallier, in charge of Strategy the Leonardo Bank. This will make him lose huge revenue. “
In fact, Russia pulls the black gold half its budget revenues. And the central bank has drawn up a blackboard Monday of next year, warning that the gross domestic product could fall by 4.5% to 4.8% if oil prices remain around $ 60 a barrel. The Russian government also expects a recession in 2015 (-0.8%), following growth of about 0.6% this year.
Other factors, such as a series of US and European sanctions against Moscow unprecedented in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, the Russian economy saddled . “ It is true that Western banks have scared the US government and virtually no longer lend to Russia in dollars, says Jacques Sapir. But these sanctions have little impact compared to speculation and falling oil prices. “
2. What consequences?
For households, the impact of the weakening of the national currency are already very concrete. Rising prices already approaching 10% year on year and promises to fly again. The authorities have seen in recent days including reappear foreign currency labels in some stores, frequent labels in the 1990s This price waltz causes a shopping fever, some Russians are pressing to buy electronic equipment, furniture or even cars before see prices flambé.
Russia is also confronted with a starting capital: $ 128 billion (103 billion euros) have “flown” in 2014, according to Central Bank Russia (CBR).
The fall of the ruble correlated with lower oil prices also had an impact in France and Germany. Sign of investor anxiety, the safest assets such as debts of the states are in high demand. The 10-year borrowing rate for Germany (0.601%) and France (0.877%) have hit Tuesday new lows in the bond market .
3. What can Russia?
The Russian government has already taken action. On the night of Monday to Tuesday, he, exceptionally, increased by 6.5 points its key rate at 17%, against 10.5% previously and 5.5% at the beginning of ‘s year. “This had no effective Tuesday as the ruble fell further on Monday, Judge Jacques Sapir. And even if Russia is still increasing its rate, it will not change because speculators can continue to speculate against the ruble. “
Lenta.ru website has also calculated that an interest rate at 17%, a mortgage will therefore now granted at a rate of at least 22%, a level difficult to hold in household purchasing power battered by rising prices.
In this context, the idea of introducing restrictions on capital movements is increasingly discussed. “This is the best solution even if it can have a political cost,” replies Jacques Sapir. “It’s a bit the last weapon remains to Russia, but it’s not a very good signal because it is a close message and it will not restore confidence in the Russian currency,” said Francois Chevallier.
Another hypothesis involve the Central Bank of China. “The Central Bank of Russia can agree with the Central Bank of China and inject huge amounts of dollars, that is to say between 100 and 120 billion dollars in a few weeks, imagine Jacques Sapir. It would then take speculators off balance and make them lose a lot of money. It is unlikely, however, because the Russian government will not accept probably not get into the hands of the Chinese. “
Vladimir Putin is expected to provide an initial response to these questions Thursday. The head of the Russian state must pass an oral exam before hundreds of Russian and foreign journalists should leave some space to the economic situation .
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