The government officially revises downwards its forecast for fiscal balance for 2015, 2016 and 2017. A message to the European Commission.
Last week, the finance minister, Michel Sapin, had warned the government would update its script and announce a public deficit “well below 3% of GDP” to the end of five years. Bercy Thursday said he aspired to bring it back to … 2.7%! After 4.1% in 2015 and 3.6% in 2016 … Even more ambitious figures than he expected so far, namely 4.3%, 3.8% and 2.8%.
“On the occasion of the new reading program bill of public finances in the National Assembly, scheduled for December 16 meeting, the government decided to amend the Financial trajectory to include all the information gathered and new decisions made since its filing, “said the ministry in a statement. Which points out that it integrates well “the impact of the adjustment plan announced 3.6 billion on October 27″ (control measures against fraud, lower debt burdens or targeted tax measures on banks ) and the consequences “of the amendments adopted during the debate” that ended on the law of corrective Finance.
Lower oil prices, euro and interest rates
If they do not give details on how it intends to bring its deficit below 3%, Michel Sapin and Christian Eckert nevertheless believe that “the decline concomitant oil price, exchange rate and interest rate are all elements that support the growth assumptions for 2014 (+ 0.4%) and 2015 (+ 1%). “
Of course, you have to give pledges in Brussels on the unwavering commitment to Paris to meet the European treaties. But the figure of 2.7% seems very bold! Particularly because the executive does not yet know where he will find the projected savings for 2016 and 2017 (the envelope 50 billion, 21 billion were made in 2015, it remains to find 29 billion over two years).
However, the commitment of the Bercy tenant on public finances bind his successor more than himself. Because it relates to the end of 2017 … so over the next five years!
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