The Bank of France raised its growth forecast for the first quarter – Les Echos

This is good news relative. On the occasion of its third estimate, the Bank of France has just raised on Friday its growth estimate for the first quarter of the year. Now the issuing Institute estimates that GDP should grow by 0.4% in the first three months of the year.

However, this new estimate does not upset probably not totally what we can anticipate growth over the next few months. Indeed, the forecast of the Bank of France corresponds to the INSEE, which in its latest monthly report anticipates an increase of 0.4% of GDP, both the first and second quarter.

A “blip” in the industry in February

at most this revision to estimate the hole air that led to the issuing institution revise downward its estimate last month and industrial production figures, released Friday by INSEE confirmed (see box), will not last long.

In its first estimate, released in February, the institution had predicted a 0.4% of GDP, but this figure was revised down from 0, 1 point in March, indicating a pause in production and deliveries in the industry.

It is true that if the industry is experiencing met evolution the resilience of consumption which increased in both January and February made it possible to feed a little more optimism about the economic situation, even if there is no quick and so 2016 should be sluggish year. With growth of 1.2% according to Moody’s and 1.5%, the government said.

April should confirm the increased activity

Best of all, if the activity has finally been higher in the first quarter, now, and based on the responses of business leaders surveyed in its investigations conditions of the Bank of France expects a continuation of the recovery in April.

In industry, business leaders who see an increase in production and deliveries, but also an intensification of controls, provide “increased production” in April . In services too, the increase in activity continues even if the increase forecasts are “less support” for the month of April. Finally, in the building, whether the activity was stable, “progression” is scheduled for April.

The industrial production fell in February, according to Insee

the air hole in the industry that led the Bank of France to revise downward its second GDP estimate is confirmed the latest figures released Friday by INSEE. According to the Institute of Economic Indeed, production in the entire industry in France fell 1% in February. Manufacturing output alone, fell 0.9%, after rising 0.4% in January

.