Failing to reverse the unemployment curve is stabilizing. That at least is the conclusion drawn the Ministry of Labour to reading the figures released Monday by Pôle Emploi. In June, the number of jobseekers in category A, in effect, increased by only 1,300 people compared to May. But this figure is to be taken with caution as Pôle Emploi has changed in calculation methods, making comparisons difficult.
The increase announced for June is certainly well less than the increases in previous months (16,200 in May, 26,200 in April and 15,400 in March). Without this change of calculation, the number of applicants in June was 11,300, slightly less than the 16,200 in May.
New profile Calculation
According to the new calculation method, which allows to better take into account job seekers in training, civic service or assisted contract, the number of unemployed n ‘ having not worked in months amounted to 3,553,500, which must be added the 1,843,900 persons who exercised a Pool (Class B and C). All categories (categories A, B and C), the level of unemployment fell by 0.3% (16,800) last month. What is very unusual compared to previous months trends. Job center also stipulates that no change of calculation jobseekers in categories A, B and C would have been higher by 24,800 people.
The most optimistic say that the government is on the right track. The analysis over a long period remains very worrying. Since the beginning of the year, the number of job seekers grew by an average of “8,800 people each month, which is twice less than in the second half of 2014″, says the ministry. The cumulative increase since January, however exceeds 50,000 people. Job seekers under 25 years are slightly less numerous in June (-1.1%, ie 545 300), but year on year, the increase was 1.8%. The situation is more worrying for 50 years or more, the number increased by only 0.6% in June (to 852,900) but 8.5% year on year. All categories, unemployment rose by 7 1% over the year.
Improvements to confirm
For the Minister of Labour, François Rebsamen, the improvement of June, “should be confirmed in the coming months to sustainably reduce unemployment.” The government relies particularly on the combined effect of load reductions on low wages in force since the beginning of the year, on the measures announced in June by Prime Minister for SMEs, including support of 4,000 euros for hiring a first employee and especially the return of a more sustained growth of the activity.
According to forecasts by Unedic, the situation could improve this summer with a first decline in the number of job seekers. But in total, the number of unemployed would increase still 12,000 in 2015. This is that next year the number of unemployed actually begin to recede, with 60,000 job seekers less. This first upturn however concern that the unemployed category A. For others, that is to say persons working in reduced activity and precarious employment, their number should continue to grow strongly by the end of the year, with over 130,000 additional people according to Unedic.
Marie Bellan
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