Construction workers in Silver Spring, in the US state of Maryland, December 30, 2010 (AFP / File / Jewel Samad)
Unemployment has continued to fall in February in the US, falling to its lowest level in nearly seven years, which shows the good health of the economy US but reopened the debate on the next rate hike the central bank.
The unemployment rate slipped to 5.5% in February, losing two tenths of points from January and beating expectations analysts who were betting on 5.6%.
The decline in unemployment to a new low since the financial crisis (May 2008) was achieved through dynamic job creation.
Despite the bad weather, strikes on the West Coast ports and oil refineries, the US economy generated 295,000 new jobs, well above the median forecast of analysts. “This is a strong statement, seriously!” Ian Shepherdson summed economist Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Monthly Change in US unemployment from February 2014 to February 2015 (AFP /)
However, the previous month’s job creation was revised down from 18,000 to 239,000.
The decline in the unemployment rate was also helped by a new small decline in participation in the labor market increased to 62.8% (-0.1 pt), which represents 178,000 people under employed or actively looking for jobs.
For ages pyramid reasons, lack of training or vis-à-vis the job search discouragement, participation in the labor market has declined in the United States since the crisis 2008 and is at its lowest for over 30 years.
Still, the unemployment rate is “now a trend where it loses a percentage point per year,” said Jim O’Sullivan HFE.
At 5.5%, the rate of unemployed is approaching the rate of unemployment “natural” that the Fed estimated between 5.2% and 5.5%.
Many sectors hired more, whether in catering, business services, construction and care, notes the Ministry of Labour.
Among the few sectors appears to have debauched the mines, reflecting the decline in activity in oil producers due to falling prices
-Still no acceleration in wages -.
Rare shadow picture, wage increases is still not at the rendezvous despite a job market that stretches and should lead employers to raise salaries to retain employees.
Salary Average hourly grew by only 0.1% in February, pushing the year over year increase of 2%, slightly above inflation. “But it is not reasonable to think that an increase in wages so shy to last a very long time,” says Ian Shepherdson.
These good employment figures involved 10 days of a meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed), rekindling the debate on the timing of a rise in interest rates, the first in a decade.
“This increases the pressure on the Fed to an increase in rates in June, “says Paul Dales of Capital Economics.
In the meantime, the dynamism of the labor market could lead the Fed Monetary Committee (FOMC) to give a signal to markets on 18 March. It could stop saying in its official press release that it must remain “patient” before a rate increase.
“We are those who think that the term + + patient will be left to the next meeting of FOMC and that rates will rise in June, “said Ian Shepherdson.
Before engaging in a normalization of monetary policy, the Fed scrutinizes wages because she wants to see signs that inflation is on the rise.
The central bank targets a 2% target for the rise in medium term, a level it considers healthy for the economy, while inflation remains below due to the fall in oil prices in particular.
Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, poor wage increase “could still give time to the Fed, delaying the first increase interest rates in September. “
Copyright © 2015 AFP. All rights of reproduction and distribution reserved.
No comments:
Post a Comment