Paris (AFP) – The unemployment reached a new level: the rate measured by INSEE rose to 10.0% of the working population in France end of 2014 (0.1 pt), a symbolic the government hoped not to know so soon.
With the overseas, unemployment also increased by 0.1 points in the fourth quarter to 10.4%, announced Thursday the Institute National Statistics.
In one year, the unemployment rate, measured by the INSEE according to the standards of the International Labour Office (ILO), climbing 0.4 points in France and 0, 3 point throughout France, finding in both fields its level of mid-2013.
“2014 was another year of low growth (+ 0.4%), it did not create jobs and absorb the increase in the workforce, “Bruno Ducoudré analysis, an economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE).
This is a setback for the government, which hoped to keep the rate “below 10% unemployment” in France, as stated on the Labour Minister, François Rebsamen, late June.
In the fourth quarter in the metropolis, it is intermediate age categories (25-49 years) which bore the entire increase. 0.2 percentage points to 9.5%
Young people and seniors have them, experienced stabilizing their rates to 23.7% for those aged 15-24 and 6.8% for 50 years or more. In one year, however, young people’s situation deteriorated 1.0 point.
Overall, Insee recorded in late 2014, 2,877,000 unemployed in France, or 124,000 of more than the end of 2013 (+ 4.5%).
The indicator of INSEE, the only internationally recognized, is less severe than that of employment center, which accounted for 3.50 million registered with no end in business metropolis December, 189,000 more than the end of 2013 (+ 5.7%). Unemployment employment center has since experienced a slight decline in the month of January to $ 3.48 million
The two indicators do not measure unemployment in the same way. Pôle Emploi lists jobseekers registered on its lists while INSEE measure its rate from a survey conducted every quarter with 110,000
-. ‘Possible stability in 2015′ –
Some of the 623,000 additional unemployed recorded by employment center is part of the “halo unemployment” INSEE, bringing 1.4 million people who want to work but are not immediately available or not actively seeking employment. This “halo” hosted 20,000 additional people in the 4th quarter and 78,000 over one year
Another negative indicator. The “underemployment”, which concerns 6.5% of assets (0.1 pt ) according to INSEE. This is essentially part-time workers who would like to work more.
The rise in unemployment in Q4 conforms to the latest forecasts from INSEE. The Institute plans by mid-2015 a further increase to 10.2% in France and 10.6% with the overseas territories.
The unemployment rate INSEE and closer to its historical peak (10.4% in France) met twice in 1994 and 1997.
But the government remains hopeful. “There is no inexorable rise in unemployment”, assured early February President Francois Hollande, who announced he would not seek a second term in 2017 if unemployment did not drop.
For his part, the Minister of Labour recently hoped “that the number of unemployed will decrease (it) at the end of the year” in 2015, thanks to a “planetary alignment rather favorable” to the economy. The Minister particularly relies on the combined declines in the euro and oil prices and the European investment plan to stimulate activity.
“In light of these developments and the continued the scalability of employment policies, it is possible that we have a stable unemployment rate in 2015, “said Bruno Ducoudré.
But if the government hopes to make more than 1% growth expected for 2015, the 1.5%, according to economists need to lower unemployment, seems difficult to achieve.
“I think we will have an acceleration in job creation but no decrease in the unemployment rate, “plans to turn the economist Philippe Waechter (Natixis), which anticipates” a possible stabilization. “
No comments:
Post a Comment