Thursday, March 19, 2015

Bombing of Tunis: Is the Islamic state responsible? – Challenges.fr

With jihadist maquis it fails to reduce uncontrollable border with Libya in chaos and thousands of young party, and for some income to fight in Syria, Tunisia is a target of choice for armed Islamists. While the attack on Wednesday, March 18 against the Bardo Museum in the center of Tunis , which killed 19 people including 17 tourists, has not been claimed, it carries at all points of the brand jihadist groups that have, in recent months, increased threats against the country. Explanations Guidere, radical Islamic scholar and lecturer at the University of Toulouse 2.

The bombing of Tunis is it the mark of a jihadist group?

Absolutely. There are three major movements in Tunisia. To the east, the brigade Okba Ibn Nafaa that depends on Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is very present. It is located near Mount Châambi for a year and a half and led a guerilla action. Its fighters are about 200. To the west, near the Libyan border, there are also Salafist Ansar Al-Sharia. They led the attack against the US embassy in Benghazi in September 2012. They are fighting alongside the Libyan Islamist militia and are between 400 and 500. Finally, there is the Islamic state has enlisted 3,000 Tunisian fighters which 400 are found in Tunisia. Given the mode of action and professionalism, these are probably the Islamic State fighters, back from the Syrian front who committed the bombing of Tunis. They return in numbers since the start of the strikes of the international coalition against Daech in September in Iraq and Syria. Tunisia is threatened in the east, south and west.

A unification of these movements is it possible?

When a government is not strong response to terrorism, the tendency is to unify under the label of the most powerful movement, the Islamic state here. This would include 1,000 people. But the danger is not so much the number but rather the fact that they cover many parts of the country.

What is the climate in Tunisia around these movements?

The situation is very tense since the last parliamentary elections in October 2014. The country is actually cut in half with a the north coast who voted more 75% for the secular party Nidaa Tunes and other southern and inland who voted for the Islamists to Ennadha. The secular party won but did not integrate Islamist ministers, they only have state secretariats, secondary positions. The south has however raised, they say it’s a return to the old regime. In some cities like Sidi Bouzid, there is a real hatred. They believe that the Jasmine Revolution has brought nothing, that the Ben Ali regime is still in place. Some members of the government have indeed worked under Ben Ali. For a year, it also identifies the daily attacks against the army and security forces.

The weakness of the Tunisian army is blamed. Can it fight against these jihadists?

It has only 35,000 men from all forces. It is not enough to control everything. Since 2011, the army used to carry large stock to reassure the population. These men are not enough to fight against terrorism in the mountains. And in many places if the army comes, the population rises because it is seen as a continuation of Ben Ali. Also, unlike the Algerian army, she did not experience the Islamist guerrillas. Under Ben Ali’s army was in disrepair, equipment was outdated, it was not renewed because power was suspicious of a coup. But in recent months the situation evolves. The French and the Americans have provided military equipment (infrared binoculars, night fighting helicopters …). She will have to get used to this new material, to form. This will take time.

Do you fear a collapse of tourism?

Tourism has declined since 2010. But since three years is a little confidence back. I do not think there is much concern to have it. 95% of tourism is happening on the coast or in the North, the Islamists hostile areas. They are very westernized and there will be no insurrection although targeted attacks such as the Bardo Museum may occur.

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