Strikes and blockades continue … and French morale improves. In a conflict on the labor law and against all expectations, consumer confidence improved in May, reaching its highest level since late 2007.
Fear that fade vis-à -vis unemployment, optimism found on the purchasing power … the indicator measuring the “consumer confidence”, calculated on the basis of balances of opinion, won four points in a month to hit 98 points, according to INSEE.
It is “the highest level since October 2007,” and therefore from the 2008 financial crisis, highlights the statistical institute in a statement. Consumer confidence, nevertheless, remains below its long-term average, which is 100 points, it is specified.
According to INSEE, this improvement is as much to household sentiment on living standards that their perception of the French economy – these two aspects constitute the pillars around which the statistical agency built its balances of opinion.
in May, French public opinion on their future financial situation has gained four points, a high proportion of consumers judging the right time (+ 7 points) to make major purchases (real estate, appliances, cars …).
with regard to the economic context, households show again “significantly less pessimistic” than in the past, according to the Insee. The opinion of the French on their future standard of living has thus greatly improved (+9 points), more of them anticipating a decline in inflation over the next three months.
concerns about unemployment, meanwhile, fell sharply after a slight increase the previous month. The balance of opinion on this question loses 28 points and reached its lowest level since June 2008, according to experts from the Institute of Statistics
-. “Oddities” –
a confirmation that “it gets better” despite the social and political turmoil arising from the labor law? “It confirms the diagnosis, namely that we are indeed in a recovery phase,” beyond “social news,” said Mathieu Plane, an economist at the OFCE.
“in indicator of INSEE, there is a large effect of unemployment. It is a reaction to the figure which was released in April “, which reported a decline of 60,000 unemployed in March, says the researcher.
‘s figures Insee “confirm that demand is back,” analyzes for its part Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Euler Hermes. “Households realize that there is a slight improvement in their financial situation. They can borrow more easily, with low interest rates and have more purchasing power, “he explains.
According to the economist, this is however not” the message repeated by François Hollande “that convinced the French that France was” better. ” “These are the figures themselves are improving, one after the other,” he says.
The INSEE has announced on Tuesday that improving the business climate, calculated from the responses of CEOs of major industries. And employment center confirmed Wednesday a slight improvement on the unemployment front, with a decline of 19,900 unemployed in April.
Does this mean that the strikes will have no impact on consumer confidence as the recovery? Not necessarily, insists Mathieu Plane, which invites to “take care” consumer confidence, which can sometimes indicator “present quirks.”
A view shared by Denis Ferrand, managing director of the institute Coe -Rexecode, recalling that the answers to the INSEE survey were collected between April 27 and May 18 … or “before the strike hardening related tensions” and “blocking the refineries.”
“the impact of movement on consumer sentiment will probably visible in June, when the next survey,” predicted economist and who still think that the effect on growth will be ” minimal “” during the strikes of 1995 and 2010 it was 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point of GDP. It should not go beyond. “
No comments:
Post a Comment