This had not happened for five years. Unemployment shows a sharp decline for two consecutive months. In late April, the number of job seekers returned to the level of winter 2015, according to figures released Wednesday, May 25 by the Ministry of Labour. Three economists deliver their analyzes francetv info.
A downward trend is confirmed
“A clear trend” Sterdyniak says Henry, economist at the French Observatory of economic Conditions (OFCE). “for about a year, rising unemployment has reached a ceiling, and for two or three months, unemployment is rather going down . “
” Two consecutive months of decline, this is a pretty significant phenomenon “ reports Matthew Plane, an economist at the OFCE another clue that points revealing: “the number of class a applicants registered its first decline in a year we had not seen it since September 2008 and the financial crisis..”
and the Ministry of Labour is not the only one to announce this good news. “the figures from INSEE indicate a stabilization or slight decrease” says Alexandre Delaigue, professor of economics at the University Lille I and Class Eco blog author. The rate of INSEE also began a slight decline: after peaking in the third quarter 2015, 10.2% of the workforce in France, another unemployment indicator dropped below the 10% at the end of the bar year, to 9.9%, and it has since stabilized at this level.
“the trend that emerges is rather that of a falling unemployment” Matthew abounds. “But beware, this does not mean that there will not even months of increase.”
The economic climate is favorable
“I dare not say, as François Hollande, that ‘it gets better’ but the macroeconomic situation is somewhat more favorable “ says Alexandre Delaigue. ” the oil price is low and this acts as a tax cut, people have been able to reconstruct their somewhat low wool and eat a little. interest rates are low and the monetary policy of the European Central Bank is favorable. and in Europe, we are not witnessing stimulus policies but there are far fewer policies ‘before fiscal austerity “ list economics professor.
” French industrial production is a positive rate of 1.6% per year, which tends to reduce unemployment at least slightly “ says Henri Sterdyniak. “Add to that an extremely active employment policy in accelerating the movement and cycles through a stabilization of unemployment down, through training courses for job seekers, subsidized jobs for young people and hiring subsidies for SMEs. and do not forget the 40 billion euros of corporate handouts. ”
In addition to the growth that is “relatively good” Matthew Plane also retains another factor: “scalability CICE and Pact responsibility “. “We start from very far but a recovery in investment and employment is beginning to emerge” , even s “we still have that acceleration of growth confirmed for a real improvement on the employment front “. Conclusion of the economist: “Unless new shock not anticipated, it would be surprising if unemployment does not decrease in 2016″ Unless imagine “worst case scenario” , as Alexandre Delaigue, with a “Brexit” and the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, in which case “the situation could deteriorate” .
” François Hollande is right to say that it gets better “, however, concludes Henri Sterdyniak. ” it is not the great upheaval of the decline in unemployment of the early 2000s or before the financial crisis 2007 but it will still be a little better. ”
The decline would it trompe l’oeil?
“The decline in unemployment is somewhat artificial” tempers Henri Sterdyniak, “because it is partly due to state aid for employment. This policy gives a boost to consumption and the economy helps reduce unemployment, but it is expensive and will not be extended forever. “
Antoine Delaigue auss peak i” the shortcomings in the employment center statistics “. On the one hand they are “subject to political contingencies” and are “very favorable to the statistical treatment of unemployment” . They are also provided by DARES, the Ministry of Labour statistics service. “The unemployed training program set up by the government earlier this year allows to get people out of unemployment the time of their formation. But the final effect is quite indeterminate” noted economics professor who also points out that the influence played by the radiation of job seekers policy conducted by the employment center.
a final factor little play, as Matthew reveals Plane . Statistics provided by DARES on April 1 tip up “unusually strong” “outputs for updating default” . This could be explained by a number of working days less in May, but also, probably, “a significant number of people, finding an activity stopped register at the employment center” .
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