Why French growth was finally better in 2014 – The World

Le Monde | 17/05/2016 at 12:33 • Updated 17/05/2016 at 12:47 | By Audrey Cooper

These are the vagaries of macroeconomic conditions. In 2014, gross domestic product (GDP) French finally rose 0.7%, not 0.2% as previously thought, said Insee, Tuesday, May 17 The revision downward this time is a little lower for the year 2013: the activity grew by 0.6%, against 0.7% previously estimated. In 2015, the Institute has however confirmed its previous estimate of a 1.2% increase of GDP

Read also:. French growth revised upwards for 2014

Why such changes? “We always carry three campaigns estimated in three years. The first is made of investigations of samples of companies. For 2014, we now have semi-definitive results because we incorporate the tax returns of companies. It is more comprehensive and more reliable, but longer to get, “ says Vladimir Passeron, head of the economy department at INSEE. The final results for 2014 will thus be published in a year, in May, 2017.

This does not change the scenario

In 2014, the increase of 0.5 point of GDP growth compared to the initial estimate is explained by “greater accounting contribution of changes in inventories (+ 0.5 points against 0.2 points previously),” highlights INSEE. This is the most subject to change position because the more complex accounting, unlike the consumption or external trade

Read also:. Modest growth in 2015 and deficit revised upwards

in 2014, investment was however less than indicated initially declined INSEE (- 0.3% against – 1.2%). The rate of margin business, it proved best (+ 0.5 points against – 0.3 above) “due to stronger growth in value added and remuneration paid less dynamic as in the previous estimate, “ notes INSEE. It reached 30.4% in 2014 (against 29.4% previously estimated) and 31.4% in 2015 (first estimate).

For 2013, it is the decline in government investment public and stronger than expected decline in purchasing power which explain the downward revision of growth.

Mr Passeron, “these revisions, however, remain marginal and do not change drastically the scenario of three years, which is that of a modest GDP growth “. However, they highlight a lesser acceleration between 2014 and 2015. “ We will have to factor this in our forecasts for 2016,” warns specialist.

The Insee also revised upwards the deficit in 2015, which was 3.6% of GDP against 3.5% previously estimated, due to a downward revision of nominal GDP.